This is edition 2025/205 of the Ten@10 newsletter.
Hi all,
This is the Ten@10, where I collate and summarise ten news items you generally won't see in the mainstream media.
Enjoy!
1. The TPM split will help Labour and National
David Farrar
- 🔥 Te Pāti Māori Expulsion: Te Pāti Māori's decision to expel MPs Kapu-Kingi and Ferris could benefit Labour and National.
- ❓ No Explanation: TPM has not provided clear reasons for the expulsions, which is unusual for a first-step disciplinary action.
- ⚖️ Waka Jumping Law: Expelling the MPs using the waka jumping law is unlikely due to support from some of the remaining MPs and potential legal challenges.
- 📅 Election Impact: The expulsions could lead to by-elections or split the vote in Te Tai Tonga and Te Tai Tokerau, benefiting Labour and National.
- 🏆 Labour’s Gain: Labour is likely to gain two Māori seats due to the vote split, potentially winning both Te Tai Tonga and Te Tai Tokerau.
- 📉 National’s Gain: National benefits from the loss of TPM’s overhang, as it reduces the seat threshold required for a majority.
- 🔮 Close Election: The expulsions could shift the balance in a close election, potentially giving National a slight edge in forming a government.
- 🗳️ Polls Show Close Race: Polls indicate a tight race, with only a few showing a clear majority for either side, making every seat crucial.
