This is edition 2025/49 of the Ten@10 newsletter.
Welcome back. It's 2025 and 20 years since I started writing about politics and anything else that took my fancy. Thank to my VIP members for making this site what it is today. In July we will be having a 20th birthday celebration. Stay tuned for more announcements.
This is the Ten@10, where I collate and summarise ten news items you generally won't see in the mainstream media.
Enjoy!
1. Why World War III is much closer than we realise
David Farrar
- 🌍 World War III has become more conceivable today than during much of the Cold War, potentially involving nuclear-armed states in a European land war, possibly in Ukraine.
- 🕊️ A peace deal in Ukraine seems likely this year, critical details include whether the US will provide a security guarantee behind new borders, a stance the current President opposes.
- 🇷🇺 Putin's ambitions for a Russian Empire encompass territories like the Baltic States, Poland, Finland, Moldova, and Georgia, raising concerns of further aggression if Ukraine is subdued.
- ⚔️ Fighting Russia in Ukraine is preferred over waiting until after Ukraine falls due to the strategic advantages of size and motivated local resistance, but it poses risks of escalation and broader European involvement.
- 🤔 The likelihood of World War III ranges from 10% to 40%, influenced by Europe's response to future provocations by Russia post-peace deal, as a US security guarantee is not on the table.
