This is edition 2026/209 of the Ten@10 newsletter.
Hi all,
This is the Ten@10, where I collate and summarise ten news items you generally won't see in the mainstream media.
Enjoy!
1. What will the final balance of power in Parliament be?
David Farrar - Polling and Politics (Patreon)
- 🏛️ David Farrar says the Government currently has 67 seats out of 131, a majority of three, and is in a good position to remain in office, but specials could still change that.
- 📊 He models the final result as if specials follow the 2023 pattern. There are an estimated 399,365 special votes, down from 602,488 last time, and 386,151 valid after applying last time's 3.31% invalid rate.
- 📉 On that 2023 pattern, Labour would lose one seat to the Greens, and the Government would stay on 67 of 131.
- 🧮 The 120th party-vote quotient is NZ First on 11,607.9, with Labour next on 11,603.6. If NZ First does just 98 votes worse on specials than in 2023, it loses a list seat to the Greens instead of Labour, and the Government drops to 66, the smallest possible majority.
- 🗳️ In the four National-Labour marginals, he projects no seat change: Hamilton would widen slightly, Andersen and Wood would hold, and Butterick would narrow slightly. Wairarapa is the most likely to flip, but not on 2023 data.
- 🟢 Genter is favoured to take Wellington Bays back. He would ignore the Te Tai Tokerau model because the contest is so different this time, but for what it is worth it has Edwards holding on for Te Pāti Māori.
- ⚠️ It is also plausible, he says, that NZ First loses a list seat to the Greens instead of Labour, and that McAnulty wins Wairarapa, which would leave the Government on 65 of 131 and in need of Opportunity.
- 🔀 Another path: if National loses a seat to the Greens, the overhang grows and the Government would be 67 of 132, or 66 of 132 if it also lost Wairarapa, which would be a hung Parliament. Opportunity would not then be enough to let Labour govern.
- 📌 Takeaway: His default scenario is no change to the overall situation of 67 out of 131, except the Greens picking up one list seat from Labour and winning Wellington Bays back.
