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This year, 2026, will be interesting, absorbing even, with an election at home and plenty of interest happening in the international sphere. While the election here will dominate a lot of the political discussion, events abroad will not be able to be ignored: Donald Trump will see to that. Iran, Greenland, a faint possibility of break up of Canada, increasing dissension within the EU, the continuing rise in right-wing parties’ popularity across Europe, the UK and Australia and the American mid-term elections will all demand our attention.
I wish to concentrate on the domestic scene but here is a brief look at the international situation. First Trump. He has done a lot of good in putting the world to rights – sorting things like the Middle East, waking up NATO, dealing to Iran and threatening dictators, although he needs to get tougher on Putin. Getting rid of bully boys is one thing, but acting like one, as in the case of Greenland, is quite another. I note however a change in his rhetoric, implying a deal is on the table after meeting with Mark Rutte, the head of NATO. The Republicans are on track to win the mid-terms with the help of the Democrats, who are destroying their own chances.
In Canada, the western states are threatening to split and become independent states of America, with Alberta and Saskatchewan leading the way. Alberta already has a petition circulating with a view to holding a referendum. British Columbia and Manitoba could potentially follow. The leaders of Germany and Italy, Orbán and Meloni, are threatening the fake unity of the European Union. Ursula von der Leyen, head of the elitist European Commission, is under severe pressure and other member countries could join the movement.
Here the forthcoming election will occupy most of the political dialogue. The polls have it close but I think the one poll that matters will not reflect that. There is increasingly good economic data coming out but the problem for the government is that people have yet to feel it in their wallets. If things keep improving, then by election day they might so I’m not surprised about the November election date.
The consistent weak link in the government is National due to the performance of the prime minister. My position on Luxon is more one of annoyance rather than deep dislike. He deserves plaudits for holding the coalition together, his performances on the world stage and getting the India FTA through. While not perfect, I think the positives of the deal outweigh the negatives.
Luxon is largely failing on the home front, where he shows he is not a consummate politician. He often lets his heart overrule his head and brings personal preferences into play. This is most obvious in his dealings, or lack thereof, on race issues. His continual pandering to a vocal minority is damaging him personally and the party as a whole. This concern registers more highly with voters than polls indicate. His advisors need to alert him to his strategic errors, although I hear he’s sometimes loath to listen.
I don’t participate in Backchat, as any comments I make would probably have me banned by Rantykiwi on my first outing. However there are many good comments written and a recent one is pertinent to this article. After suggesting Luxon should grow a spine, Ranty made the point that Luxon needed to break some eggs in order to make the omelette. He hit the nail on the head.
Ranty said:
· Pull out of the Paris fraud
· Do what you said you would do around Māorification
· Cut immigration back sharply
· Reform benefits
· Slash the public service by 50 per cent
· Clean out the woke judiciary.
I am in complete agreement. Billions of dollars would be saved and this is money desperately needed in areas like health, housing, education and infrastructure. Do those things and another landslide win is in the offing. Sadly, National lost its mojo some time ago. They appear too afraid to make the big domestic calls needed to ensure things like racial equality and economic stability are in place. I was going to add growth but I think that might be happening.
The growth on the domestic front is largely due to Shane Jones. Ably assisted, particularly in the housing area by Chris Bishop and Chris Penk, things are moving. Jones thinks Penk is an underrated minister and I agree. He’s one of only a few to get things done. Jones also wants to do a deal with Trump on minerals. “We’ve got them and he wants them.”
This is what delivering growth and prosperity is all about. Shane Jones is on the right track. Like Trump, it’s about doing deals. What also enables getting things speedily done is the fast-track legislation and cutting red tape. In this area, the coalition has made real progress and deserves some praise. These are the ‘needs’: we need to mine and drill; we need what is in the ground and so does the world; we need the export revenue; and we need a good result for both ACT and NZ First to keep National on the right track.
We know mining and drilling is the sort of stuff Labour and the left would never do. This is why the re-election of the coalition is imperative. The possibility of this happening is aided both numerically and by the chaos on the left. It is also aided by the rhetoric from Shane Jones wanting to achieve outcomes and progress things he never could with Labour. This is ensuring NZ First is inside the coalition tent.
Right now the political waters might look more like the Cook Strait on a bad day, but I think by election day the sun will be shining on the coalition.
