Last week was a perfect storm of polling disasters for the Labour Party. It started with the Roy Morgan poll, the The Post poll, then Talbot Mills (Labour’s own pollster) and finally the Taxpayers’ Union poll.
All saying the same thing: Labour’s support has cratered from the 2020 election-night high. The damage is immense – approximately 50 per cent of their support has disappeared, and it has literally sprayed everywhere.
David Farrar told me on The Crunch that he has never seen anything like it. Voters are choosing anyone but Labour.
When you get one bad poll, you can rationalise that it might be slightly off. Two polls starts to sow doubt, three polls starts demoralising supporters and four polls just shows that the previous three weren’t rogue, or even slightly off. When you get four polls in a week saying the same thing then there really is no other option but to accept the polls are right.
For Labour those four polls have shown them, their MPs, and their supporters that we don’t love them anymore. They are unequivocal: they cannot be excused, explained, or even spun. They are what they are and they say that Labour is doomed.
What happens next is the last remaining swing voters see what is happening and they start to back winners, not losers. Then Labour’s support drops again.
Labour party volunteers become dissatisfied and demoralised, and all of a sudden, the party bosses realise that their pool of enthusiastic volunteers is really only a bunch of surly, disgruntled true believers.
You start to see the other parties having large amounts of supporters and that Labour can only muster a few true believers. The rot really sets in and support for Labour drops even further.
But there is worse to come: there are the two main television polls to come, and that’ll happen at least twice more. The Herald also usually runs at least one poll during the election campaign. Each poll further confirms how voters are moving, and hurt just keeps piling on.
Chris Hipkins might think he’s in it for us, but the voters know that they aren’t in it for Labour. And so the pain continues.
The worse it gets, the nastier Labour will get. They are at the point where they’ve realised that people are no longer talking to them – that people would rather cross the road than be near the toxic red team.
The polls becoming self-fulfilling. In that sense, last week was the first comprehensive evidence for Labour politicians that they really should be dusting off their CVs, because in a few short weeks they will be getting the arse card from New Zealand voters.
The only real questions that remain are: How low can they go? And will they beat Bill English’s 20.94 per cent?
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