What Can We Read Into the TVNZ Poll?
Economic optimism does not decide elections. But it matters. Has National timed its run just right?
Polls
The Right Is One Seat Short. Party Vote NZ First or ACT.
National jumped four points and Labour hit its lowest since 2023, yet the 1News-Verian seat maths leaves the right one seat short. A party on eight per cent and a party on 0.7 per cent now decide who governs.
The Left’s Only Road to 61 Runs Through a 5.4 Per Cent Party. Party Vote NZ First or ACT.
The Post/Freshwater poll has Labour 28.7, National 27.6 and the left reaching 61 only with Opportunity on 5.4 per cent. Electorate vote National, party vote NZ First or ACT.
Vic Libs Can’t Afford to Play Coy
Playing hard-to-get on preferences with One Nation is delusional.
Dead Heat and the Kingmaker Has Already Put Her Land Tax on the Table
Hipkins and Luxon tied on 20 per cent, National and Labour on 34 seats each and Opportunity holding the balance. The kingmaker who won the debate had already said dropping her own tax reform was worth considering. Electorate vote National, party vote ACT or NZ First.
Winston Brought the Majority
NZ First is up to 12 per cent and 16 seats and that is what puts the coalition on 65. National’s party vote still buys no list MP. Electorate vote National, party vote ACT or NZ First.
One Point In Mt Albert
Spinoff-Curia has Helen White on 33 and Melissa Lee on 32 in Mt Albert. Eighteen votes decided it in 2023. ACT and NZ First should clear the field for Lee. Every National electorate win without a list seat is another box for Willis, Bishop and Goldsmith.
The Insanely Stupid Idea Is Two Ticks Blue
Greens on a record 16 per cent, National and Labour stuck on 28 per cent and Luxon calls the overhang an ‘insanely stupid idea’. The stupid idea is sticking with two ticks blue while the polls sink.
Giant Douche. Turd Sandwich. Take Your Pick.
Every leader underwater. Luxon worst at 54/25. Hipkins ahead on seven of eight. Ardern still the only net favourable figure. South Park already named the ballot.
Above 30. Still No Number.
Hipkins says Talbot Mills has Labour above 30. Asked for the number. No number. Show me the numbers.
Still No List MPs. Still No Answer.
Both majors under 30. National 135k short of one list MP. Still selling two ticks blue. The honest National vote is electorate vote National and party vote ACT or NZ First.
The Polls Are Wrong About One Nation
The ‘wasted vote’ lie just copped a 89 per cent preference hiding.
Hung. And Hipkins Still Has a Job.
Eight-point lead. Hung parliament. Opportunity at 9.5% and holding the knife. The gallery built the Trojan horse. Labour on 24. Hipkins still has a job.
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[The Good Oil] September 2026 Political Poll
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