More Polls Keeping Labor up at Night
Australians are mad as hell and they know who to blame.
Polls
The Left’s Horror Story Has Run Into the Voters
The coalition has the better starting position, National has serious damage to explain and the final arithmetic needs more care than the victory speeches.
National Sinks, Winston Holds and a Te Pāti Māori MP Ticks Green
Roy Morgan’s final poll has National on 26.5 per cent while NZ First and ACT hold firm. The left’s path runs through Opportunity, and Te Pāti Māori’s own MP is party voting Green.
Two Final Polls Say Overhangs Decide It, and the Left Is Banking on One
The final 1News Verian and Taxpayers’ Union-Curia polls both say electorate seats will decide this election and the left is counting on Te Pāti Māori winning seats its party vote cannot earn. So much for overhangs being a dirty trick.
Winston Peters Is Carrying the Right on His Back.
A Freshwater Strategy deck published by the Platform shows National down 12 points since 2023 and NZ First holding the right bloc together. The numbers check out.
The Only Way Is Down
One Nation take the lead as Labor and the coalition slump further in the polls.
Luxon Is Chasing Bill English’s Record and Caucus Let Him
National is on 24.8 in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll, below Judith Collins in 2020. Christopher Luxon still says he won’t share the top job.
The Gangs Row Did Not Miss The Left. It Hit The Whole Bloc.
1News says Labour held steady through the gangs row. Labour did. The left did not. The poll was in the field the week Kerrin Leoni’s footage came out, and the right bloc now sits on 61 seats to the left’s 56.
What Can We Read Into the TVNZ Poll?
Economic optimism does not decide elections. But it matters. Has National timed its run just right?
The Right Is One Seat Short. Party Vote NZ First or ACT.
National jumped four points and Labour hit its lowest since 2023, yet the 1News-Verian seat maths leaves the right one seat short. A party on eight per cent and a party on 0.7 per cent now decide who governs.
The Left’s Only Road to 61 Runs Through a 5.4 Per Cent Party. Party Vote NZ First or ACT.
The Post/Freshwater poll has Labour 28.7, National 27.6 and the left reaching 61 only with Opportunity on 5.4 per cent. Electorate vote National, party vote NZ First or ACT.
Vic Libs Can’t Afford to Play Coy
Playing hard-to-get on preferences with One Nation is delusional.
Dead Heat and the Kingmaker Has Already Put Her Land Tax on the Table
Hipkins and Luxon tied on 20 per cent, National and Labour on 34 seats each and Opportunity holding the balance. The kingmaker who won the debate had already said dropping her own tax reform was worth considering. Electorate vote National, party vote ACT or NZ First.
Winston Brought the Majority
NZ First is up to 12 per cent and 16 seats and that is what puts the coalition on 65. National’s party vote still buys no list MP. Electorate vote National, party vote ACT or NZ First.
One Point In Mt Albert
Spinoff-Curia has Helen White on 33 and Melissa Lee on 32 in Mt Albert. Eighteen votes decided it in 2023. ACT and NZ First should clear the field for Lee. Every National electorate win without a list seat is another box for Willis, Bishop and Goldsmith.