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Labour has copped an absolute shellacking in the polls over the past ten days. Newshub/Reid Research was the fifth bad poll for them, and now the Guardian has released a new poll, making it six bad polls for Labour.
Neither a Labour nor a National coalition could form a government without the support of populist minor party New Zealand First after the October election, according to the latest Guardian Essential political poll – which showed respondents unwilling to give either major party a commanding victory.
Since August, the governing Labour party slumped 2.5 points to 26.9% in the survey, which also recorded unsure voters – 5.3% in September – in its final result. But the results showed apathy towards both of the biggest parties, with centre-right National failing to pick up any speed from August, despite remaining ahead on 34.5%.
In the Guardian Essential New Zealand poll of more than 1,100 eligible voters, the Greens experienced a surge in favour, up 2.5 points from August to 11%, while Te Pati Maori remained at 2.5%. National’s traditional support party, the libertarian group ACT, fell 1.3 points to 10.3%.
New Zealand First, a party led by the veteran politician Winston Peters, recorded a result above the 5% threshold to enter parliament for the second consecutive month in the Guardian Essential poll. The party, which was ejected from parliament at the 2020 election after falling below the threshold, was up 0.7 points to 6%.
The Guardian
Labour is shedding support to every other party, but it seems National is mired in the 30s. This is because of the Luxon effect. No one really believes him. A case in point was his dreadful interview with Jack Tame. I mean, seriously, if Jack Tame can defeat you, then you aren’t even in the game.
New Zealand’s major political polls have showed a continued downward trend for Labour in the past month amid cost-of-living woes driven by ballooning inflation and interest rates in the past two years. The party that thundered to a resounding victory with 50% of the vote in 2020 – giving it an almost unprecedented ability to enact its policy agenda – is now languishing below 30% in the polls. In the Guardian Essential survey, Labour would take 35 seats in parliament on the latest figures, down from 62 now. Combined with the Green party’s 15 seats (up from nine ) and three for Te P?ti M?ori (which now holds two), the leftwing coalition would hold 53 seats, well short of the 60 needed to govern.
But unlike some other surveys that record the National party bolstering its lead and establishing a comfortable 60-plus-seat majority in partnership with Act, the Guardian Essential poll registers National at the same level of support as in August, giving the party 45 seats on current figures (up from 34 now), with 14 for Act (up from 10) – leaving the block on 59 seats, just short of a majority.
The Guardian
Labour is going to lose half of its MPs and is unlikely to get even a single List MP. We are now looking at a decapitation of the senior leadership of Labour, including Grant Robertson and David Parker.
This is getting messy, and the bloodletting is impressive. Expect to see rogue MPs come out of the woodwork and Labour’s tactics become increasingly desperate.
With polls like this, David Seymour may well be regretting his intemperate attacks on Winston Peters.
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