The Tauranga by-election was really about whether National’s majority reflected a return to near normality or could Labour prove its 2020 result was more than just a Covid one. The result reflected the former, as a 4% gap in 2020 was turned into a 42% gap last weekend. In fact, the result for Labour was worse than in the 2017 general election.
You wouldn’t think so, listening to Ardern and Jan Tinetti. Ardern said in a statement that Tinetti “returned one of Labour’s better results in recent elections”. In 2020 Tinetti received 43% of the electorate’s vote. That was 1% more than the size of the gap (67% to 25%) last Saturday night. In 2017 Labour got 31% of the vote and in 2014 the figure was 22%. What the by-election proved was that, politically, Tauranga has signalled a return to business as usual.
Ardern didn’t bother visiting Tauranga at all – not once. According to Claire Trevett in the Herald, she may regret not having done so. She had a visit arranged in the last week but was ‘sick’ on the day. Also, she was isolating with Covid (had a cold) and was overseas during the campaign. Claire may like to offer excuses but I won’t. Ardern never shows up where bad news is pending. This was amply on show during Covid at 1pm where she was never there when there were tough questions to be answered.
Ardern knew no good news was going to come out of Tauranga so she left Tinetti to it. This illustrates her style of leadership which really isn’t leadership at all. She only shows up in situations where she can look good. Just about everywhere she goes now she is met with protests, a far cry from the heady days of unadulterated adulation. Nowadays she largely restricts herself to schools and selfies with kids. So Tinetti was basically hung out to dry.
It is well known that Labour couldn’t run a bath but they took one in Tauranga and Tinetti was the one in it. Tinetti strangely appeared really pleased with the one she had last weekend. She was “stoked” with the number of people who had voted for her. Perhaps, in amongst the sensuality of the soap suds, she was overtaken by a pleasurable winning feeling. Maybe for a moment, she thought she had won.
The brutal fact is that Tauranga is a provincial city and the Curia poll, also released at the weekend, shows the centre-right doing well in the provincial cities and exceedingly well in the rural heartland. The Tauranga result reflected the poll and should serve as a wake-up call to the Labour Party. Without a split vote on the left (the Greens did not participate) they could only muster 25% of the vote. ACT, a minor party, managed almost half of Labour’s vote.
Ardern now only goes where the silk purse is and that is more and more overseas. America, Australia and now a meeting with NATO leaders rather than the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting where Mahuta will sit in for her. I use the word ‘sit’ advisedly as sitting is something she is very good at. There’s probably more personal mileage and coverage for Ardern in the NATO meeting.
Ardern can try and make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear if she likes, but the truth is, there is a pointed message in the Tauranga result. Tauranga isn’t that much of an outlier electorate that the result shouldn’t be looked at as a reflection of the overall mood of the country. Labour MPs can ignore it at their peril. They probably will as they’ve made a pig’s ear out of everything else.
