While Australia has been drawing global attention for its stance against China, the brutal fact is that Australia is a middle-power nation. While China is not and probably never will be a superpower, it is undeniably a great power. In this asymmetric diplomatic and trade war, Australia needs its allies to have its back.
Unfortunately, Australia’s oldest and closest ally is currently governed by a party of clever incompetents more than a little besotted by the sight of China’s money.
Still, for all that it’s a great power, China’s increasingly shrill rhetoric suggests that it is not quite so confident as it wants to be seen to be.
Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne’s decision to tear up Victoria’s idiotic BRI agreement with China has sent its “wolf warriors” into a right old tizz. China is doubling down on both its rhetoric and its trade punishment. In doing so, it is losing more and more face: China is carrying on like a petulant bully rather than the virtuous global citizen it wants to be seen as.
Worse, its trade sanctions are hurting it more than Australia. In the latest example, hay exports, Australian farmers will be inconvenienced but will find new markets easily, as they have with other China-banned products; on the other hand, Chinese dairy farmers have lost access to the best available product for their growing herds.
Perhaps the Ardern government hopes to capitalise on that. Certainly, Jacinda Ardern is openly edging ever-closer to fully signing on to the BRI. Clearly, she has learned nothing from the experience of African and Asian nations who’ve already done so – and found that the Belt and Road run very much one-way: straight into the pockets of Beijing’s cronies.
Rudyard Kipling described New Zealand as “last, loneliest, loveliest, exquisite, apart”. Ardern’s foreign policy has got the “apart” bit sorted.
Wellington wants the defence and intelligence benefit of being part of the Five Eyes grouping without ever having to rock what Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta described in a speech last week as, “New Zealand’s diplomatic relationship with the (sic) China has been steadfast for nearly 50 years”.
Mahuta’s speech was piled high with platitudes about how important it was for New Zealand “to stay true to ourselves”, but nowhere does that translate into clear expressions of disapproval for Beijing’s bad behaviour, or words of support for New Zealand’s democratic allies.
Remember, this is a government which has made virtue-signalling its primary policy. Ardern’s entire prime ministership is built on a grandiosely flattering self-image, willingly reinforced by a lickspittle local media, of unimpeachable moral goodness. Ignore the reality, just keep looking into Jacinda’s Magic Mirror.
Here’s one example of this evasive moralism: “Matters such as human rights should be approached in a consistent, country agnostic manner. We will not ignore the severity and impact of any particular country’s actions if they conflict with our longstanding and formal commitment to universal human rights.”
Does “country agnostic” mean Wellington disapproves of the mass detention centres imprisoning hundreds of thousands of Uighurs in Xinjiang but can’t mention China by name?
More importantly, how does Mahuta square her government’s supposed commitment to human rights with cosying up to a genocidal dictatorship? How “consistent” is that?
The real constistency here is New Zealand Labour’s passionate, long-term commitment to white-anting its country’s hitherto strongest alliances. America has long felt the sting of ungrateful NZ Labour children; now it’s Australia’s turn.
As I’ve written elsewhere, NZ’s share of the regional defence burden has been declining for decades.
If New Zealand truly no longer wants to pay its Five Eyes dues, Australia has a vastly more significant and capable partner in Japan. Big strategic thinking would say that it’s time to bring Japan into the Five Eyes fold.
The Australian
If Jacinda Ardern thinks that Australia shipping home a few NZ-born crims is “corrosive”, she might want to have a hard look at her own foreign policy.
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