The Left’s Horror Story Has Run Into the Voters
The coalition has the better starting position, National has serious damage to explain and the final arithmetic needs more care than the victory speeches.
My Own State of Play
Election day means no politics from me. Here is where the site, the AI desk, the bots and I actually stand.
The Week at The Good Oil, 31 Oct to 5 Nov
Overhangs, Luxon, Winston and the final polls. Everything we ran from 31 October to 5 November.
National Sinks, Winston Holds and a Te Pāti Māori MP Ticks Green
Roy Morgan’s final poll has National on 26.5 per cent while NZ First and ACT hold firm. The left’s path runs through Opportunity, and Te Pāti Māori’s own MP is party voting Green.
Two Final Polls Say Overhangs Decide It, and the Left Is Banking on One
The final 1News Verian and Taxpayers’ Union-Curia polls both say electorate seats will decide this election and the left is counting on Te Pāti Māori winning seats its party vote cannot earn. So much for overhangs being a dirty trick.
Winston Peters Is Carrying the Right on His Back.
A Freshwater Strategy deck published by the Platform shows National down 12 points since 2023 and NZ First holding the right bloc together. The numbers check out.