Quick Hit: National’s Desperate War on Winston Peters
Attacking your own kingmaker instead of fixing your own failures is the behaviour of a government that knows it is sliding. It risks blowing up the coalition and hands the left a free narrative.
Political Intelligence
Quick Hit: The India FTA – McClay’s Win, Luxon’s Lifeline or... Labour’s Foot in the Door?
Quick intelligence briefing from Good Oil – Political Intelligence.
Quick Hit: Right Bloc Leads Coalition Preference 45–39, NZ First Voters Lock It In
The current coalition retains the advantage on the only question that matters under MMP – who can actually form a government. The left still has significant work to do to become a credible alternative.
Quick Hit: The Third Assassination Attempt on Trump and the Normalisation of Stochastic Terrorism
The outrage is the delivery mechanism, not a side effect.
Quick Hit: Shane Jones and the Butter Chicken Tsunami Narrative Strike
The outrage is the delivery mechanism, not a side effect.
Quick Hit: Luxon’s Loyalty Purge – The Ghost of 1997 Returns
Will Luxon double down on the attack against Winston, or will he be forced into a humiliating retreat to save the government?
Quick Hit: Luxon’s Unanimous Trap – How to Mislead Parliament in Two Easy Steps
Christopher Luxon’s press conference and parliament performance reveals how explaining is losing in politics.
Quick Hit: The Poll of Polls Says What Luxon Can’t Admit – Winston Is the Government
The Good Oil’s Poll of Polls reveals Labour leading at 35.2 per cent vs National’s 29.6 per cent. The coalition survives with just a one-seat majority – and it’s entirely dependent on Winston Peters.
Quick Hit: Luxon’s ‘Full Support’ Line Is the Kiss of Death
The moment a senior minister stops echoing the ‘full support’ line in interviews is the moment the coup is complete.
Weekly Political Intelligence: The Power Vacuum
The Luxon-Peters Divergence & Parliamentary Pressure
Quick Hit: Playground Predators and the Compassionate Justice Joke
How many other “high-risk” offenders are out there with conditions nobody is enforcing?
Quick Hit: The Great Pivot – Winston’s Surge and the Luxon Slide
Winston Peters will continue to position NZ First as the ‘adults in the room’ Expect more ‘unnamed National sources’ briefing against Luxon in the coming weeks.
Quick Hit: India Trade Deal – Trust Us, We Can’t Show You
The government wants parliament to back a free-trade agreement with India. There’s just one problem: they won’t show us what’s in it.
Quick Hit: Gang Funding – The State-Sponsored Patronage Era Ends
The media’s attempt to frame this as ‘losing community engagement’ is a joke: you cannot engage with a criminal enterprise without becoming its payroll office.
Quick Hit: Winston’s India FTA Play – The Masterclass in Wedge Politics
If the FTA fails, Winston owns the populist victory. If it passes with concessions, Winston owns the win. He can’t lose.
Quick Hit – The Roads They Promised Are Already Being Scaled Back
The roads were never going to build themselves. Turns out, they’re not going to be built at all – at least, not the way they were promised.