Quick Hit: Luxon’s ‘Full Support’ Line Is the Kiss of Death
The moment a senior minister stops echoing the ‘full support’ line in interviews is the moment the coup is complete.
Political Intelligence
Weekly Political Intelligence: The Power Vacuum
The Luxon-Peters Divergence & Parliamentary Pressure
Quick Hit: Playground Predators and the Compassionate Justice Joke
How many other “high-risk” offenders are out there with conditions nobody is enforcing?
Quick Hit: The Great Pivot – Winston’s Surge and the Luxon Slide
Winston Peters will continue to position NZ First as the ‘adults in the room’ Expect more ‘unnamed National sources’ briefing against Luxon in the coming weeks.
Quick Hit: India Trade Deal – Trust Us, We Can’t Show You
The government wants parliament to back a free-trade agreement with India. There’s just one problem: they won’t show us what’s in it.
Quick Hit: Gang Funding – The State-Sponsored Patronage Era Ends
The media’s attempt to frame this as ‘losing community engagement’ is a joke: you cannot engage with a criminal enterprise without becoming its payroll office.
Quick Hit: Winston’s India FTA Play – The Masterclass in Wedge Politics
If the FTA fails, Winston owns the populist victory. If it passes with concessions, Winston owns the win. He can’t lose.
Quick Hit – The Roads They Promised Are Already Being Scaled Back
The roads were never going to build themselves. Turns out, they’re not going to be built at all – at least, not the way they were promised.
The Good Oil Political Intelligence – Weekly Round Up: 6 April–11 April 2026
A comprehensive weekly wrap of New Zealand politics: NZ First surges in the polls, Winston Peters meets US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Iran ceasefire developments and parliament heads into Easter recess.
Quick Hit – The Judiciary Has Lower Standards Than the Northern Club
The Judicial Conduct Panel has set a precedent – and it’s the wrong one. It has told every judge in the country that you can publicly heckle a senior government minister, accuse him of lying, invoke your judicial colleagues as political allies and still keep your job.
Quick Hit – Winston’s Already Writing the Next Coalition Agreement
Watch the next round of polling – because if NZ First keeps climbing, the internal dynamics of this coalition shift fundamentally.
Quick Hit: The Media’s Fuel Crisis – Worse Than the Actual One
Two coordinated hit pieces on the coalition’s fuel response landed on the same day – one from the Spinoff, one from the Post. Both missed the point entirely.
Quick Hit – The Diesel Death Spiral: Luxon’s ‘Unaffordable’ Relief vs a $4 Litre Reality
Welcome to life at the end of the world’s supply chain.
Quick Hit – Coalition Back in the Driver's Seat
If these trends hold, the coalition’s viability rests entirely on NZ First’s ability to sustain double-digit polling. National alone cannot deliver government. ACT alone cannot make up the difference.
Quick Hit: Luxon’s Bishop Move – Clever Tactics or Self-Inflicted Wound?
If National’s polling doesn’t improve by mid-year, the leadership question resurfaces – and Bishop will be perfectly positioned with his big policy portfolios and nothing to lose
Quick Hit: Gangs Act Gets Its First Scalp – And the Apologists Are Already Crying
A Mongrel Mob member has been convicted for wearing gang insignia while driving home from a tangi. The High Court just upheld it on appeal.