Quick Hit: The Painter Went Surfing
Labour's $1.3b CGT assumes the painter still turns up. Grant says he goes surfing.
Political Intelligence
Quick Hit: Two Ticks. Luxon Out.
The neutrality finding is the CV. Two ticks New Zealand First. Vote Luxon out.
Quick Hit: Five or Zero
Chippy's genuine shot is a binary bet on Qiulae Wong. Five per cent or zero.
Quick Hit: Contempt, Then Nothing.
The finding is the punishment. The invoice still sits in the file.
Quick Hit: To Know Who Is 16, You Need to Know Who Everyone Is
To keep a 15-year-old off Instagram, a platform has to know a 45-year-old is not 15.
Quick Hit: 59, 55 and Six Seats for Wong
Opportunity on 5.3 and six seats. Right 59, left 55. Neither governs without Wong.
Quick Hit: Labour’s 20 Per Cent Debt Promise Is a Sequel Nobody Asked For
Why believe the sequel when they wrote the first draft?
Quick Hit: Hipkins Sold Seven. Jackson Just Sold Two.
The campaign manager will not sell the leader’s line.
Quick Hit FTA: Dairy Demands Nearly Blew Up Talks, NZ Official Admits
New Zealand went into these talks wanting dairy and came out with crumbs and a migration side-door.
Quick Hit: Poll of Polls – The Margin of Victory Is Growing, And It’s Not Going Where the Herald Thinks
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Quick Hit – Luxon and Peters Wedge Labour: No Grand Coalition as TPM Implodes
🔴 VIP EARLY ACCESS Rapid Intelligence Briefing | 12 May 2026 | Stuff.co.nz + open source | High Confidence | Medium-High Urgency EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has categorically ruled out any grand coalition with Labour, calling the notion “insanity” while he cleans up the previous government’s mess. Winston Peters has
Quick Hit: National to Campaign on Raising Super Age
Luxon delivers Winston Peters a ready-made wedge and stick.
Quick Hit – English Language Bill: Peters Lands a Symbolic Bomb on te Reo Virtue Signalling
Peters is forcing the political class to confront that English is the language that actually unites the country.
Quick Hit – BSA Scrapped: Coalition Kills Regulator After It Tried to Muzzle the Platform
The Platform case exposed how the 1989 act was being stretched to capture internet livestreaming. Removing the BSA reduces the compliance burden on independent outlets and shifts power back to audiences rather than bureaucrats.
Quick Hit – Government Gives Councils Amalgamation Ultimatum – Fast-Track Local Government Reform Accelerates
🔴 VIP EARLY ACCESS Rapid Intelligence Briefing (6 May 2026 | The Good Oil – Political Intelligence | Confidence: High | Urgency: Elevated) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The coalition has issued a three-month ultimatum to councils to produce amalgamation plans or face government-imposed restructuring, paired with fast-track RMA and local government reform. This is
Quick Hit – ACT Sniffs the Wind and Borrows NZ First Immigration Policy
This is ACT desperately trying to poach votes by copying NZ First’s successful playbook. They’re right on the policy, but it highlights ACT’s polling slump while NZ First surges.