Political Intelligence
Quick Hit: Hipkins Dumped Leoni, Now He Might Need Her Seat
Chris Hipkins dumped Kerrin Leoni over gang campaigning. She is still on the Tāmaki Makaurau ballot as Labour, a pre-resignation Curia poll had her two points off the seat and, if she wins, only Labour can pull the party-hopping trigger.
Quick Hit: ACT’s $22b In Four Lines
ACT’s manifesto puts $22 billion of savings on the table over four years, debt $12.4b lower by 2031, Super at 67 by 2035, and a three-year minimum wage freeze. One headline muddled that to $2b. Hipkins still has not priced his first week.
Quick Hit: Hipkins’ First Week, Unpriced
Hipkins promised five actions at his first cabinet meeting. Labour’s own fiscal plan puts a price on two of them. For the hiring freeze, the ED plan and the price-gouging law, we found no published cost.
Quick Hit: Petty and Pathetic, by the Numbers
Hipkins called Luxon’s education attack “petty and pathetic”. The ministry’s own figures show regular attendance fell from 64 per cent to 39.9 per cent while he was minister, and it was falling before Covid arrived.
Quick Hit: The Greens’ Plan In Numbers
The Greens promise $3b more for health at each of four budgets, a surplus a year later and $26.6b more debt by 2030/31, paid for with nearly $29b in new taxes. The Taxpayers’ Union says 17 other promises, worth $176.4b, are missing from the plan.
Quick Hit: What the Court Actually Said
The High Court struck down the puberty blocker ban on consultation and discrimination grounds. It also found the minister had a rational basis to act, made his own decision and did not act for an NZ First purpose.
Quick Hit: An Overhang Is Not Cheating
Luxon and Hipkins both said engineering an overhang is cheating. The Electoral Commission says it is how MMP works, and parliament has had one in five of the last seven terms.
Quick Hit: He Was Chairing It
Hipkins says he isn’t sure the Mob’s $2.75m ever went to cabinet. The Taxpayers’ Union says his own cabinet turned down a plan to stop gang contracts in July 2023, while he was prime minister.
Quick Hit: Silence Is Not a Right
National would make staying silent about a child’s killing a crime, with up to 10 years in prison. The Greens are open to it, ACT has doubts and Labour has yet to say on the record which silence it wants to protect.
Quick Hit: The Only Hand Not Raised
Four leaders raised their hands for diversity at TVNZ’s debate. Winston Peters didn’t. RNZ’s expert rebuttal ends by conceding his “disunity” warning “could indeed fit”.
Quick Hit: Labour Wants Google to Pay for News Kiwis Don’t Trust
Labour’s Reuben Davidson says the Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill will be revived with urgency, but won’t commit to the first 100 days. The bill would make tech platforms fund the legacy media only 37 per cent of Kiwis trust most of the time.
Quick Hit: Stuff Checked Labour’s $6,000 Bill and Found the Credits Missing
Stuff fact-checked Labour’s “Cost of Luxon” line by line. Some numbers hold, rates come in at about half and the document counts every cost while leaving out tax cuts, mortgage savings and FamilyBoost. Chris Hipkins admits it “does not account for changes in income”.
Quick Hit: $2.19 Million Says Cap It
Opportunity wants a $30,000 donation cap. Gareth Morgan has given it $2,190,617. Pull the ladder up once you are on the roof.
Quick Hit: 284,000 Jobs by Masterplan
The Greens say their nearly $6 billion economic plan will create 284,000 jobs over four years. Treasury already forecasts 220,000 of them. Marama Davidson says what’s missing is “the masterplan”.
Quick Hit: Now Is Not The Time
National’s fiscal plan offers no income tax cuts until the books are in surplus in 2028/29, only a “pathway to potential tax relief”. Nicola Willis still called National “the party of low tax”.