The Herald’s Audrey Young opened her wallet for the latest Motu Research Poll of Polls and announced the headline: the coalition will win and the margin is growing. She buried the bigger story. The numbers are not just confirming a coalition win. They are reshuffling who actually carries it. Christopher Luxon’s National Party is being overtaken inside its own coalition –and the new Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll proves it.
📌 Key Points
📊 The Herald-Motu Poll of Polls puts the coalition’s probability of a second term at 88.3% – up from earlier readings, with the margin of victory described as “growing”
📊 The Good Oil’s own internal Poll of Polls – weighted average across the latest three pollsters – has Labour at 33.89%, National at 29.76%, NZ First at 12.13%, Greens at 9.33%, ACT at 6.95%, Te Pāti Māori at 3.06%
📊 The latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll (field 3–7 May, n=1,000, MoE ±3.1%) has National at 30.0% – flat – while NZ First drops 1.9 to 11.7% and ACT crashes 2.5 points to 6.5%
📊 Seat projection from TU/Curia: government bloc 62 seats; opposition bloc 58 seats. Coalition still forms a government
📊 Luxon reclaims preferred PM at 21.5% – but on 1News-Verian last month he was 16%, on RNZ-Reid he was 17.3%. The pollster spread tells you the real ceiling
