Quick Hit: The Painter Went Surfing
Labour's $1.3b CGT assumes the painter still turns up. Grant says he goes surfing.
Political Intelligence
Quick Hit: Two Ticks. Luxon Out.
The neutrality finding is the CV. Two ticks New Zealand First. Vote Luxon out.
Quick Hit: Five or Zero
Chippy's genuine shot is a binary bet on Qiulae Wong. Five per cent or zero.
Quick Hit: Contempt, Then Nothing.
The finding is the punishment. The invoice still sits in the file.
Quick Hit: To Know Who Is 16, You Need to Know Who Everyone Is
To keep a 15-year-old off Instagram, a platform has to know a 45-year-old is not 15.
Quick Hit: 59, 55 and Six Seats for Wong
Opportunity on 5.3 and six seats. Right 59, left 55. Neither governs without Wong.
Quick Hit: Labour’s 20 Per Cent Debt Promise Is a Sequel Nobody Asked For
Why believe the sequel when they wrote the first draft?
Quick Hit: Hipkins Sold Seven. Jackson Just Sold Two.
The campaign manager will not sell the leader’s line.
Quick Hit: Poll of Polls – The Margin of Victory Is Growing, And It’s Not Going Where the Herald Thinks
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Quick Hit: Right Bloc Leads Coalition Preference 45–39, NZ First Voters Lock It In
The current coalition retains the advantage on the only question that matters under MMP – who can actually form a government. The left still has significant work to do to become a credible alternative.
Quick Hit: The Third Assassination Attempt on Trump and the Normalisation of Stochastic Terrorism
The outrage is the delivery mechanism, not a side effect.
Quick Hit: Shane Jones and the Butter Chicken Tsunami Narrative Strike
The outrage is the delivery mechanism, not a side effect.
Quick Hit: Luxon’s Loyalty Purge – The Ghost of 1997 Returns
Will Luxon double down on the attack against Winston, or will he be forced into a humiliating retreat to save the government?
Quick Hit: Luxon’s Unanimous Trap – How to Mislead Parliament in Two Easy Steps
Christopher Luxon’s press conference and parliament performance reveals how explaining is losing in politics.
Quick Hit: The Poll of Polls Says What Luxon Can’t Admit – Winston Is the Government
The Good Oil’s Poll of Polls reveals Labour leading at 35.2 per cent vs National’s 29.6 per cent. The coalition survives with just a one-seat majority – and it’s entirely dependent on Winston Peters.
Quick Hit: Luxon’s ‘Full Support’ Line Is the Kiss of Death
The moment a senior minister stops echoing the ‘full support’ line in interviews is the moment the coup is complete.