Do National MPs Support Luxon?

Sources inside the National caucus say things are pretty dire for Luxon. Not surprisingly Luxon will tell you he has the full confidence of his caucus. Publicly most of caucus will tell you they do have full confidence in Luxon. But the numbers are being run and MPs are being lobbied by potential replacements.

Luxon, being a third grader trying to play in the All Blacks and completely lacking political talent, hasn’t worked out he is not the CEO of a company which has underlings to do his bidding. He has a caucus that are his first employers, and to stay in the job he needs half of them to vote for him. His problem is he is dead set useless and has managed to piss off about a quarter of the caucus by making it clear that they have no future under him. 

This table below shows MPs that Luxon has told: ‘You will not get a promotion with me as leader.’ It also shows the MPs who will likely lose their seats if Luxon stays leader. Charitably, National is polling at down four per cent from election night, and uncharitably as much as eight per cent. This means a lot of National MPs in marginal seats will lose their seat if National’s numbers don’t improve. Anyone with a majority of under 6000 will be vulnerable to the message that, without Luxon, National will win more seats.

There are 48 MPs in caucus, 50 per cent is 24, but effectively you need 25 MPs to roll Luxon, as a tie means the status quo is retained and National limps along with a lame-duck leader.

Luxon has already lost those he has shafted and he is losing those who will lose their seats because he is so unpopular. 

Readers should comment if they know any other MPs who might replace Luxon.