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Eric D. July recently stated that, as the clamour to lift lockdowns grows, expect a rash of scaremongering stories from the governing class’s media lapdogs. Sure enough, right on cue, the legacy media are shrieking their heads off about a so-called “second wave” of infections. “A tsunami” thundered The Australian’s Greg Sheridan.
Except that the evidence is showing nothing of the sort.
We keep hearing about the ‘second wave’ in Singapore and Japan that should serve as a warning for us. I have shown here and here that those second waves are figments. I have based my argument that this threat is ephemeral on the daily infection rate graphs of each country as detailed at the Worldometer site.
Worldometer’s tracking of daily new infections for both countries shows no sign at all of a “second wave”. Japan’s new infections are falling steadily, with the occasional “blip”, exactly as you would expect in a natural phenomenon. Singapore appears to have been a late-starter, but is showing all signs of a similar trend.
With the typical goal-post-shifting logic of determined doom-sayers, the media have quickly moved on to Germany. “Germany may be compelled to bring back elements of its lockdown amid signs that coronavirus cases could be on the point of starting to multiply again,” shrieked the Australian.
That certainly caught my attention. Had the no-second-wave case been discredited? Maybe not[…]
There is a serious disconnect between the claims made in The Australian article and the graph. On 2nd April, Germany recorded 6813 new cases. Since then it has recorded a steady overall decline (albeit with fluctuations on a daily basis) to around 1154 on 28th April. You can clearly see that since the 23rd April there has been a decline in new cases except for a blip on 28th April.
That trend has continued its steady downward trend into early May, with no sign of any dramatic surge.
Which to believe? That’s a tough one. Worldometer, whose provenance is described here? Or politicians, whose main aim seems to be to foster and preserve a legacy of saved lives at the cost of a ruined economy — as if saving lives and the economy were mutually exclusive.
No doubt this will be more grist to the mill of the health bureaucrats to whom our governments seem to be in thrall. How long will it be, do you think, before we hear PM Morrison or Health Minister Hunt quoting Germany as another example of the ‘second wave’.
Jeremiahs like Sheridan are also pointing trembling fingers a century into the past, to the Spanish Flu. But, not only are they talking about two completely different viruses, they’re conveniently ignoring a century of advances in medical treatment and preventive health.
Now, I’m not saying we won’t get a second wave, although I note that technology and processes have advanced considerably since the days of the Spanish flu and we haven’t seen that devastating second-wave effect with any of the more recent pandemics such as SARS, MERS etc. What I am saying is that if it does happen it won’t be because it’s happened in another country. We already know that the responses and experiences from country to country are vastly different although, ultimately, in each country the virus will take its course regardless.
Pshaw! Who needs stuff like evidence and logic, Poindexter? These unelected bureaucrats and wannabe authoritarians have got a taste of unchecked power and they’re not about to give that up just because of some pesky data.
Now, stay inside and stop asking questions.
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