JD
Over the past 35 years, world GDP growth has been over 400 per cent in nominal terms, or 170 per cent when adjusted for inflation. Since GDP is another term for economic output, from services, transport, manufacturing and agriculture, all belching out CO2, we must be going to global warming hell in a handbasket right?
Wrong! Recent analysis in the US shows since 1992 there has been a remarkable rate of ‘decarbonisation’, the reduction of man-made CO2 in relation to GDP growth, in America.
The amount of CO2 per $1000 of GDP per capita in the US more than halved in a straight line drop from 0.45 mmt to 0.19 mmt over this timeframe.
But what of NZ, gaily polluting our way to oblivion as the Green lobby would have us believe? Surely we haven’t been similarly successful?
And of course we have not. We do better!
Since 1990 our GDP per capita grew by 73 per cent, from $31k to $53k, whilst our CO2 emissions per capita reduced from 8.0 mmt to 6.85 mmt, a drop of 15 per cent.
Measured against GDP per capita our CO2 emissions fell from 0.26 mmt to 0.13 mmt in 2025, making us already one of the best performing countries in the world on this metric. We ‘pollute’ at only two thirds of the US rate and, more interestingly, at only half of the Australian rate of 0.24.
Already extremely successful, we would be even more so if only we could switch from (imported Indonesian) coal usage to natural gas. The latter is the main driver of the US performance.
Unfortunately for those of us who want to do our bit for reducing CO2, Ardern’s Government banned exploration in this field.
And the likes of Te Partly Māori are threatening any explorers who do restart under the new coalition Government that their activities will immediately be outlawed should TPM make it into government in 2026.
Doomsayers, fear mongers and outright luddites. The linear reductions in CO2 as a percentage of GDP we have so far achieved will likely stagnate if the unholy alliance of TPM, Labour and the clearly misnamed Green Party should ever get their hands on the levers of power.
Alternatively, in a world we can only imagine thanks again to greenie scare tactics, we could go nuclear and solve all our power problems at once.
Dream on.
