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Summarised by Centrist
New Zealanders are paying a lot more for basic food not because inflation has suddenly spiked, but because years of artificially low pricing have quietly ended.
New data from Stats NZ shows food prices rose 4 percent over 2025, while the price of a standard loaf of white bread jumped almost 60 per cent.
Shamubeel Eaqub, chief economist at Simplicity, said supermarkets had historically used bread as a loss leader, keeping prices low to attract shoppers even as costs rose.
“For a long time, bread was a loss leader for supermarkets,” he said. “Because the cost of inputs, particularly wheat, has increased so much, we’re now seeing the dam breaking and the price of bread increasing at the supermarket aisles.”
Global wheat prices suggest pressure remains, meaning the increase is unlikely to be reversed. Milk prices rose 15.8 percent over the year to $4.92 for two litres at the cheapest end of the market, while beef steak prices increased 21.7 percent over the same period.
White bread rose 58.3 per cent. Electricity and gas prices continued to climb, with power up 27.3 per cent and gas up 56 per cent since December 2021.
Stats NZ said some seasonal food prices fell during the month, with lettuce, cucumber, and avocado becoming cheaper, while soft drink and lamb prices also dropped.
But those movements do little to offset the rising cost of everyday basics that form the core of household spending.
