It’s looking like 2019, all over again. If only we could go back to those happy, pre-Covid mandate times. What I’m talking about, though, are the pre-election opinion polls. Once again, the media and pollsters would have us believe that Labor has the election in the bag. Is Anthony Albanese about to pull off (no “True Thai” pun intended) what Bill Shorten couldn’t?
And can Scott Morrison call down another election miracle?
Voters in the key demographics that helped Scott Morrison win the last election have deserted the Coalition over the past three months, with sharp falls in support among working families, in a sign that cost-of-living pressures will define the political contest as the government puts the finishing touches to next week’s budget.
An exclusive demographic analysis of Newspoll results since the beginning of the year shows the key groups that the Coalition relied on for its surprise election win in 2019 have swung strongly against both the government and the Prime Minister personally.
In other words, we’re seeing exactly what the pollsters were telling us in the lead-up to May, 2019. Back then, Bill Shorten was such a shoo-in that legend has it he’d already booked the movers and measured the Lodge for new drapes. The Coalition government was led by an unpopular leader who’d lurched so far to the left that the party’s base was deserting it in droves.
And the polls were dire.
While support for the Coalition has fallen across the board, the Coalition has suffered a seven-point fall among 35 to 49-year-olds, with only 29 per cent now claiming to support the Liberal/Nationals. Labor now has a clear lead in this critical demographic with a five-point lift in support to 44 per cent.
Another key demographic to have swung strongly in Labor’s favour, which has a crossover with this age cohort, is voters with annual household incomes of more than $150k.
This is a demographic that the Coalition has consistently dominated in Newspoll surveys and would be considered vital to the Liberal/Nationals chances of winning an election […]
The latest analysis shows a marked shift in mood with Mr Albanese now leading as the preferred prime minister by 41 per cent to 39 per cent.
Mind you, any report that includes the startling assertion that household incomes above $150k are “modest” might want to be taken with a grain of salt.
On a state-by-state basis, the Coalition remains dominant in Queensland, its strongest state, with a primary vote of 40 per cent, which is unchanged from the last analysis. Labor has improved its average by just a point from 31 per cent to 32 per cent.
The Coalition has also clawed back ground in Western Australia, where Labor has suffered a strong fall in support federally with a four-point drop in its primary vote to 40 per cent.
These are the same states that almost single-handedly delivered victory to Morrison in 2019.
There is also this interesting caveat to bear in mind:
The results also show that despite popular belief that he had a problem with female voters, there was no discernible gender gap when it came to male and female levels of support for the Coalition.
There was, however, a substantial gender gap when it came to Labor voters, with 20 per cent of female voters having not yet made up their mind about the Opposition Leader.
Which would indicate that, firstly, the relentless and hysterical campaign by the legacy media, driven entirely by extremely rich, inner-city professional women, to tar the Coalition as rampant, rapey misogynists is simply not biting with female voters. Secondly, it also suggests that the Coalition’s attack on Labor’s “mean girls” bullies — who are some of its most prominent female politicians — has plenty of scope to damage the opposition, especially given Albo’s steadfast denial that the party even has a female bullying problem at all. Labor might also want to re-think running the divisive Grace Tame as a candidate.
In any case, a week is a long time in politics and the government has one last big shot to fire before heading into campaign season.
The results suggest that next week’s budget, to be handed down by Josh Frydenberg on Tuesday, has become central to the Coalition’s campaign for re-election with cost-of-living relief becoming a polarising issue for voters.
The Australian
If Frydenberg resorts to the old John Howard playbook of doling out tax cuts and other forms of targeted relief, Budget Night may yet be a decisive hit for the government.
Still, it can’t be denied that Morrison has squandered truckloads of political capital. On the other hand, much of the hyper-critical coverage of his tenure has been driven more by an out-of-touch, inner-city media class than suburban reality.
All in all, though, given how Newspoll all but guaranteed the last election for Bill Shorten, only a very brave punter would be having anything other than an each-way bet.
