Three polls within a week tell the story that many have been longing to hear: Labour’s bubble has burst, and they are now circling the drain. The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll reflects both the Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll and the Roy Morgan Poll.
The New Zealand public has sent a decisive message to Labour – they’ve had enough of the drama.
Labour’s series of scandals have sent it on a downward spiral, with the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll giving National and ACT the numbers to comfortably form a Government.
There will be no happy chappies or ‘Chippys’ in the Labour camp after these results.
Labour has dived back down into the low 30s. At 32.3 percent, Labour has fallen 3.6 points, back to the exact same result it got in this poll just before Christmas last year.
That was before Jacinda Ardern stepped down as leader, before its great reset.
Labour’s loss is National’s gain, popping head – but perhaps not quite shoulders – above to 36.6 percent. It’s up 1.3 points.
It’s the minor parties having a major moment. Voters are drifting away from the two motherships, with ACT inching towards teens. It’s on 12.1 percent, up 1.3 points.
The Greens are also shooting up too. It’s on 9.6 percent, up 1.5 points.
Moving to the minnows, here is the comeback king – Winston Peters. New Zealand First is on 4.1 percent, up 1.1 points, within breathing distance of the 5 percent threshold needed to get back into Parliament.
Te Pati Maori has slipped slightly. It’s down 0.8 to 2.7 percent. The Opportunities Party is down 0.5 to 1.5 percent. The New Conservatives are at 0.7 percent, with no change.
Newshub
National/Act have a slim majority and it looks like NZ First is going to be back in Parliament. In two polls they are over 5%, and this one is close.
Which makes David Seymour’s idiot remarks yesterday morning about refusing to work with NZ First baffling.
Maybe he is scared about the predictable and inevitable rise of NZ First.
Look at the trends; they are far more important than the headline numbers. We are back to traditional polling patterns. We are also starting to see the collapse of Labour’s vote and we are also seeing that split amongst the minor parties rather than pouring into National’s side of the ledger.
No wonder Chippy has been rendered speechless:
There is still plenty more life in this campaign, but I believe now that we will be seeing a change of Government come October.
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