The latest political poll from the Taxpayers’ Union/Curia is out and it is not pleasant reading just five months out from the election. We are being forced to look at a choice between a Giant Douche and a Turd Sandwich, or, as I like to put it, between Captain Underpants and Howdy Doody.
Labour is up one point to 37% and National is up two points to 37%. ACT is up one point to 10% while the Greens are also up one point to 7%.
The smaller parties were Maori Party 2.9% (+1.5 points), NZ First on 2.6% (-1.6 points), New Conservatives on 1.7% (-0.8 points), Democracy NZ 1.6% (+1.1 points), and TOP on 0.8% (-0.9 points).
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament, assuming all electorate seats are held:
Both Labour and National are down one seat each to 48 and 47, respectively. ACT is also down one seat to 12 while the Greens are up one on nine seats. The Maori Party is up two seats to four.
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 59 seats is down two on last month but remains marginally ahead of the combined total for the Centre-Left of 57 seats (no change).
For the first time since August 2022, the Centre-Right cannot form government on its own and neither bloc has a majority. This means that the Maori Party holds the balance of power.
So, the Maori Party, full of racists, holds the balance of power, which means they’ll go with Labour and the Greens. That scenario should fill you with dread, because that would see the full implementation of co-governance come roaring back on the agenda.
The problem for National and their supporters is that Captain Underpants is simply failing to fire. National’s supporters talk about keeping your powder dry… well it’s so dry that it is of no use now.
Remember, too, the commenters here who lauded the National Party education policy as a game changer, and how I said that it would sink without a trace by the next poll? Well, HELLO!
Chris Hipkins has a net favourability of +28% (-5 points). Both Christopher Luxon (-4 points) and David Seymour are on -6% (-7 points).
Finance Minister, Grant Robertson, has a net favourability of -8% while Environment Minister, David Parker, has a net favourability of -21%.
Chris Hipkins also now has a negative net favourability rating with National voters of -5% down 18 points from +13% last month.
Taxpayers’ Union/Curia
Both Captain Underpants and the Boy Wonder are now deep into negative net favourability. You won’t win an election with negative net favourables, as I have painstakingly pointed out before.
Nothing is happening to make people want to change, and this close to the election Christopher Luxon and National should be in front. They aren’t, and they are showing no sign of even nosing ahead.
What we are seeing is a choice between a duplicitous and inauthentic bald man and a spastic ginger kid. The spastic ginger kid gets the sympathy vote every time over the try-hard inauthentic bald guy.
Criticise me all you like re the baldness, or keeping your powder dry, but give me some facts that say otherwise… and wishful thinking isn’t facts.
With the state of the economy, lack of delivery and the poor performance and scandals that have beset this Government, the problem should not be keeping your powder dry: it should be that you are running out of powder because it is such a target-rich environment.
Right now, as it looks, National will lose the election sitting on unused kegs of the aforementioned powder and Labour will get three more years to keep cratering the economy.
That will be great for whomever replaces Christopher Luxon, but not for the country.
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