The polls are starting to get some stability, with the latest Roy Morgan Poll showing the Government extending its lead over the increasingly fractious Labour-led opposition.
For the National-led Government support for National increased 3.5% points to 36% - their highest level of support for four months since February 2024, but support for ACT dropped 1.5% points to 9.5% and support for NZ First increased 1% point to 7.5%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour increased 2.5% points to 26.5%, support for the Greens was down 1% point to 13% and support for the Maori Party dropped 2.5% points to 3.5%.
A further 4% (down 2% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 2.5% (down 2% points) who support The Opportunities Party and a further 1.5% (unchanged) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, Democracy NZ, New Zealand Loyal, NewZeal and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National/ ACT/ NZ First would win 66 seats compared to 54 seats for Labour/ Greens/ Maori
The survey results for August would lead to 66 seats (down two seats from the election) being won by the current National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to 54 seats (down one seat) for the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition.
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 45 seats (down four seats), support for ACT would equal 12 seats (up one seat) and NZ First would win nine seats (up one seat).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 33 seats (down one seat), Greens support would mean 16 seats (up one seat) and the Maori Party would win five seats (down one seat).
Roy Morgan
