The latest Taxpayers’ Union/Curia Poll has been released. The key take out from the poll is that although it shows National and Act can govern it also shows that National is failing to gain traction while Christopher Luxon’s personal polling is hampering any potential growth in the party rankings.
| Party | Support | Change from last month |
| National | 35.6% | down 0.9 |
| Labour | 33.8% | down 3.1 |
| ACT | 12.7% | up 3.2 |
| Green | 7.0% | up 0.3 |
| M?ori | 3.7% | up 0.8 |
| NZ First | 2.6% | nc |
| Other | 4.5% | down 0.3 |
National drops 0.9 points on last month to be on 35.6% but retakes the lead over Labour who falls back 3.1 points to 33.8%.
ACT sees a boost in support of 3.2 points to 12.7% while the Greens are relatively unchanged on 7.0% (up 0.3 points on last month).
The smaller parties are the Maori Party on 3.7% (+0.8 points), NZ First on 2.6% (nc), TOP on 1.7% (+0.9 points), New Conservatives on 1.6% (-0.1 points), and Democracy NZ 0.3% (-1.3 points).
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament, assuming all electorate seats are held:
Curia poll
Labour is down 4 seats on last month to 44 while National is down 1 seat to 46. ACT is up 4 seats to 16 while the Greens are unchanged on 9 seats. The Maori Party is up one seat to 5.
The Centre Right is in a position to form government with a combined total of 62 seats, which is up 3 on last month. The combined total for the Centre Left drops 4 seats to 53.
Curia poll
This is all well and good until you realise that National is failing to get ahead of Labour and a closer look at the leader’s favourability stakes shows that Christopher Luxon is the sole cause of National failing to fire. His net favourabilities have slumped again.
Chris Hipkins’s net favourability score of +22% is 6 points lower than last month and down 11 points on his March peak of +33%.
Christopher Luxon’s score of -7% (-1 point) is at its lowest level since he became National Party leader in November 2021 while David Seymour is on -11% (-5 points).
Chris Hipkins has a slight positive net favourability rating with National voters +7% while Christopher Luxon has a score of -56% with Labour voters.
Among undecided voters, Chris Hipkins has a positive net favourability of +30% while Christopher Luxon is on -26%. David Seymour is on -32%.
Curia poll
Luxon has got an enormous problem and history is against him. At this stage of the election cycle he should be well ahead of Hipkins. But he isn’t, and history shows us that there are very few leaders with negative favourables who go on to become Prime Minister. The fact that David Seymour is mired even lower shows that voters aren’t enamoured with either of these leaders. That does not bode well for a positive result at the election.
National should be well in front. They have only just snuck in front of Labour as a result of Labour slumping rather than National gaining. This is emblematic of Luxon’s lack of electoral appeal, and his inauthentic demeanour.
While it is true that Governments lose elections, rather than Oppositions winning them, the main opposition party should at least be pulling away in the polls. National’s numbers simply aren’t growing, and history shows us that support for both Labour and National traditionally slide away in the final weeks. That makes the current gap rather perilous if you are hoping for a change of government.
The situation isn’t helped either by David Seymour attacking both potential coalition partners.
Hopefully, Luxon’s categoric ruling out of any deal with the racist Maori Party will see a bump. If it doesn’t then they really do have a problem.
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