3 March 2025
I always try to support my letters with the appropriate references and avoid rumours, speculation and scuttlebutt but I remain aware of certain comments and opinions by contacts I have built up over the years that I use for my own background information.
There have been some interesting comments recently and I pass them on with the appropriate caveats as to their veracity.
In my letter of 19 February I made the comment that Trump appears to be playing both sides regarding access to the mineral wealth of Ukraine. I have had whispers from Canada that Trump has a verbal agreement with Putin that appears to bear this out.
Just to show how quickly the situation changes, after this comment was made the following appeared in the Washington Post.
“We are ready to attract foreign partners to the so-called new, our historical territories that have returned to Russia,” Putin said, using Kremlin code for occupied Ukraine. “There are certain reserves there too. We are ready to work with our partners, including the Americans, there as well.”
Source Washington Post, 24 February 24 2025
Similar comments were made by senior Democrat Jeanne Shaheen.
Donald Trump may be pursuing a mineral rights deal with Vladimir Putin and Russia as well as with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukraine, a top Senate Democrat has warned, discussing the US president’s demand that Kyiv grant US firms access to 50% of its rare-earth reserves, as a price for helping end the war three years after Russia invaded.
“I think anything that helps position Ukraine for any peace negotiations is a positive move,” said Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, the ranking Democrat on the Senate foreign relations and armed services committee, who recently visited Ukraine.
“Now, what we heard when we were in Ukraine is that 40-50% of those mineral deposits are actually in territory controlled by the Russians. Maybe part of the deal is President Trump is going to get a deal with Vladimir Putin on the mineral rights too. So… that could be a little tricky.”
Shaheen was speaking to the One Decision podcast, hosted by the former MI6 chief Sir Richard Dearlove, the former CIA director Leon Panetta and the reporter Christina Ruffini.
Source the Guardian, 27 February 2025
I have also heard that the current unrest between Europe and the USA may have security implications. By getting closer to Russia, the USA is undermining the trust in the Five Eyes intelligence group. There is developing a concern about the security of information shared with the USA. Given the Trump administration’s concern about China, this will not be good news for US concern about Chinese expansion in the Pacific.
A former White House official and advisor to Trump suggested putting pressure on Canada by threatening to expel it from the Five Eyes network, which has been described as “the most successful intelligence gathering organisation in world history”, said Dennis Wilder former CIA official, provider of daily briefings during the last Trump presidency.
A top White House official has proposed expelling Canada from the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network as Donald Trump increases pressure on the country he talks about turning into the 51st US state. Peter Navarro, one of the US president’s closest advisers, is pushing for the US to remove Canada from the Five Eyes – which also includes the UK, Australia and New Zealand – according to people familiar with his efforts inside the administration.
One Five Eyes intelligence official said evicting Canada from the decades-old network would be very dangerous. “Sitting where I’m sitting and looking at the array of threats that are coming at us we need all the partners we can get,” the intelligence official said. Phil Gurski, a former Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) analyst from 2001-2015, said: “What’s driving this? Yes, Canada is the smaller partner, but the alliance is effectively sharing very sensitive information, the alliance is working. So why would we be punished? “This seems one more White House tactic to put pressure on Canada for god knows what?”
Source Financial Times, 25 February 2025
Given the USA’s interest in Greenland and the Arctic to counter Chinese and Russian activity there, this seems less than wise. Also, although New Zealand is a smaller provider of intelligence to the network, with increasing Chinese activity in the Pacific it will play an increasingly more important role. (Even allowing for the Cook Islands blip!)
This diminishing trust in the support of the US as an ally is causing much discussion amongst the chattering classes of the Western world. Particularly at risk are Japan, South Korea and Poland. Poland, of course, is a member of NATO, but with the growing antipathy of the US towards NATO, Poland, which is a growing, influential member of the EU, is looking inwardly to its own protection.
In a scenario that frightens the West, it is rumoured that South Korea (Foreign Affairs magazine December 2024) and Japan are looking into nuclear weapons and are five years away from developing them.
Poland has the economic development and the intellectual and scientific ability to produce nuclear weapons. Ukraine, of course, has a latent ability to produce nuclear weapons and can produce tactical nuclear weapons within three to five years.
In the meantime, Poland has offered to host nuclear weapons and delivery systems on its territory.
I have a lot more to write, but, until I get firmer verification, I will not discuss the issues raised in this forum.
