We’ve had two polls in two days. Both the Reid Research poll and the Colmar Brunton poll (ONCB) are now aligning and if you look at the positions of the two main parties from just a month ago it is clear there is now a trend emerging.
For Labour, that trend is downwards. For National that trend is upwards.
Labour are in the box seat, but remember this, just three years ago they came second at the election yet still managed to form a government.
A week ago they had slid 5 points in the ONCB poll and last night they slid a further point, so six points in less than a month. On Sunday night Labour had slid a massive 10 points on the previous Reid Research poll.
In all of those polls both National and Act are on the rise.
The trend is now clear, Labour is slipping and the centre-right is gaining.
Based on the ONCB there is a six point gap between Labour and National/Act. A three percent swing and it is even stevens.
I’m not sure I believe either polls on their assessment for the Greens. That said they are in a precarious position because on average they poll 1.3% worse than the public polls.
David Farrar explains:
Over the seven elections they have contested, they have on average done 1.3% worse than the polls. By company it is:
And by year it is:
So for the Greens to be totally secure they would want to be polling 6.5% or more.
Both Curia and UMR have the Greens on much less, and even below the 5% threshold.
NZ First is sliding away towards electoral ignominy. They handed their firearms supporters to the Act Party, and are now struggling to make it back. There is no chance for a hail mary electorate seat. Winston Peters will need to pull a very large rabbit out of his hat this time round.
With a bit over four weeks of campaigning left Labour won’t be happy with the trend. They won’t be happy either that their record in government is now being exposed for its lack of performance, which just highlights how empty their election slogan is.
Which is why Jacinda Ardern has changed tack and is now talking about “stabilidy”, to go with “double judy”. Somehow I suspect we won’t be hearing about “double judy” again.
I believe the slide will continue for Labour. To me this looks like a similar polling profile to the 2005 election, when Don Brash put National back in the game after the disastrous years of Bill English.
National has had similar issues, with the lacklustre and unlikeable Simon Bridges followed by the weak and wet attempt by Nikki Kaye and Todd Muller to lead. Both regimes are responsible for the position National now finds itself in but there is still hope. A couple of good debates and further exposure of the failures of Labour and the election is anyone’s to win.
The end result is harder to pick than a broken nose and any pundit, like Tova O’Brien, or Wrongly Wrongson, risks being embarrassed by making bold predictions. But don’t worry, I’ve been saving their predictions.
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