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Looking at the Stats in Reality

Despite the protestations of those who wish to make political capital out of it, the average length of life among Māori has nothing to do with racism – systemic, endemic or otherwise.

Photo by Jakub Żerdzicki / Unsplash

JD

My wife is ill. So much so that, between outpatient clinics and inpatient surgical wards, she has spent most of the past six weeks in and around the hospital. 

So far, so unremarkable, given that this scenario plays out for many unfortunate families every year. But then we come to what, considering the current NZ political narrative, is remarkable. 

My wife is Māori, and yet, during all this time spent within the NZ Health System, neither she nor I have identified any instances where she has been subjected to racism – systemic or otherwise. 

Indeed, given that the majority of hospital staff appear to be of non-European extraction, one wonders from where systemic racism, so often claimed by the purveyors of the ‘Māori as victim’ rhetoric, would emanate if it did occur. (Which, as we have confirmed by firsthand observation, it clearly does not.) 

In rebuttal we will of course hear from the usual suspects. 

Firstly the radicals who enjoy the high-living joyride (aloha to you Debbie) provided by the political wing of the Māori grievance industry. 

And secondly, their facilitators, the tribal elites, together with their bureaucratic mandarins (here’s looking at you Tuku, Helmut, et al.), extracting high fees for the administration of the billions of dollars of Treaty settlement wealth. 

These elite groups pay lip service to support of the radicals’ mantra of racism and discrimination to divert attention away from their own shortcomings. 

It is all too common a tactic that is played out on political stages the world over. When you want to divert attention away from your own greed and mismanagement in governmental and economic terms, then you find an external enemy on whom to focus the minds of the people. 

From Russia in the Ukraine and Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism and assault upon Israel, to North Korea’s threats against America and China’s machinations around Taiwan and the Pacific, they all serve the same purpose. Whilst the local populace is externally focused, they have no time to be asking awkward questions about the internal failings of their own leadership. 

And NZ’s tribal elites are no different. They too hope that rank-and-file Māori, who in my experience get little or nothing in the way of Treaty rewards, won’t raise awkward questions about why not, and will instead focus their grievances externally, onto the ‘colonisers’, back to whom all Māori ills can supposedly be sheeted. 

So we come to the claim trotted out by these various purveyors of the victimhood narrative to ‘prove’ that systemic racism exists within NZ and the NZ Health Service. The claim that Māori have a lower life expectancy than Kiwis of European descent and consequently an anti-Māori bias must be to blame. 

Given that this life-expectancy factoid gets tabled at every opportunity to justify all sorts of differing claims for reparations and special treatment, it’s probably worth analysing the situation in greater detail. 

Firstly we should recognise that ‘life-expectancy’ is just a euphemism for ‘average age at death’, and, as correctly observed, it does differ between racial groups in NZ. As shown by these government stats(1), it is:

85.1 years for Asian males and 87.9 years for Asian females

81.0 years for ‘European or other’ males and 84.5 years for ‘European or other’ females

73.4 years for Māori males and 77.1 years for Māori females

75.4 years for Pacific males and 79.0 years for Pacific females

Which leads a casual observer to one immediate observation. If systemic racism is the reason why Māori have an earlier average age at death, then why do ‘European or other’ Kiwis live shorter lives than their Asian counterparts?

Is someone practising a similar racist bias against Kiwis of European ancestry too? And if so, who is doing it?

Or has racism nothing at all to do with it, because life expectancy can actually be attributed solely to the age demographics of the various groups?

Considering Māori versus non-Māori, the stats are:

The 2023 census(2) showed the median age of the Māori population is 27.2 years, more than a decade younger than that of the total New Zealand population, which sits at 38.1 years.

Taking this into consideration, a simple thought experiment will tell you why the average age at death differs between the groups as follows.

For this hypothesis, let us say persons under 50 years old have an average age of 25 and those over 50 have an average age of 75.

Assume then that 75 per cent of Group A are under 50 years old, versus only 60 per cent of Group B.

So, with an even spread of deaths, the average age at death of Group A will be: 75 per cent @ avg age 25 years + 25 per cent @ avg age 75 years = 38 years.

Similarly, the average age at death of Group B will be: 60 per cent @ avg age 25 years + 40% @ avg age 75 years = 45 years.

When compared to the total Kiwi population, a much higher percentage of Māori are indeed in the sub-50 years old category, which means their lower average age at death has everything to do with the fact that they are simply younger, on average, than non-Māori New Zealanders.

Despite the protestations of those who wish to make political capital out of it, the average length of life among Māori has nothing to do with racism – systemic, endemic or otherwise.

Never mind all of the other reasons why one group of Kiwis might live longer than another group. Reasons such as comparative obesity levels, smoking rates, urban vs rural living factors affecting access to health care and the propensity of younger people to take more risks etc, etc. The absolute key determinant is demography.

If you belong to a group who are on-average younger than another group, then your average age at death will be lower.

Of course there are two ways to shift these numbers. Having fewer children would increase the average age, but the radicals rely on the votes of easily influenced, politically naïve youth to keep them in their privileged positions, so that’s not going to be popular.

Alternatively, if a disproportionate number of older people were to die then that too would increase the average age at death, but that’s unlikely to be popular either (particularly among those older folks).

As a consequence, and in view of the above, radicals who campaign on shifting life expectancy statistics whilst demographics are the way they are should, perhaps, be careful of what they wish for. 

Sources:
(1)  www.stats.govt.nz
(2) www.stats.govt.nz 2023 Census population change by ethnic group and statistical area

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