There are two reasons for buying the Weekend Herald. Both reasons sit in the Business Section and feature two contributors: Bruce Cotterill and Fran O’Sullivan. Their articles are always timely and many are related to politics. Fran’s articles are often more specific, while Bruce paints pictures with a broader brush. Both articles over two weekends were of the National Party debacle.
I first want to talk about the media, because it was Bruce’s article that gave me the idea for my headline, as it occurred to me that virtually none of the achievements he talks about are mentioned in the media. I am aware most prefer not to watch the six o’clock news and their reasons for not tuning in are pretty obvious, including having no interest in left-wing politics.
That the coalition achievements Bruce lists are not highlighted in the media confirms them to be true. I liken the journalists’ game to Snakes and Ladders. The inane questions asked in media standups have a childish sound to them. On the board the ladders are for the left to climb up and the snakes are, of course, for the right to go down. This might read as puerile but I think it reflects how today’s left-wing media operates. The right get brief mentions regarding policy whereas the left often get coverage akin to a documentary.
Bruce’s point is that beyond the noise there is real progress. He has sat down with all three coalition leaders. He describes Peters as the most fun, with an impressive intellect and steeped in political history. Seymour he describes as somewhat serious but a bright and a clear thinker on policy. He says while Luxon is not a politician and not the best communicator, there is no one he has encountered who is as single-mindedly aspirational for this country as he is. Bruce describes all three as impressive.
So, the achievements. Bruce starts with crime and the virtual absence of ram raids, down 85 per cent from their peak under Labour. The banning of gang patches is working. Retailers feel safer and policing has become easier. There are 46,000 fewer cases of violent crime in this parliamentary term than the last and a 22 per cent reduction in youth offending. In healthcare, elective procedures have increased, access to bowel and breast screening has also increased and a new medical school is underway to help us overcome the shortage of home-grown medics. Legislation is progressing to guarantee up to three days of postnatal care if desired.
School attendance, which was at an all-time low in 2022, has increased 17 per cent since 2023 – 69 per cent of students attended school 90 per cent of the time in term one. An hour a day of compulsory reading, writing and maths has been introduced and is showing results in junior schools, with ability up from 36 per cent to 51 per cent.
The coalition Government has reduced taxes, with changes to tax thresholds meaning 1.8 million people are better off to the tune of at least $150 a month. Our export trade is flying high and the exodus of skilled Kiwis has slowed. Red tape is being unwound and resource management protocols are set to simplify building and construction.
Bruce mentions a group of ministers, some of whom are suspected of being involved in the recent debacle, who have all proven to be very capable ministers who get things done despite a bureaucracy that wants to slow their progress. He says Nicola Willis has grown into the finance minister role and is doing a good job. From ACT he mentions Nicole McKee, Andrew Hoggard and Karen Chhour. In NZ First he rates Shane Jones for championing mining and the regions. Of the opposition, he says it will be more of the same: tax, spend and increase debt.
Bruce gives a pretty glowing report on the coalition, one that I think is deserved. I think we can become easily consumed by the circus on the sidelines, although the National Barnum and Bailey event did warrant attention. Fran O’Sullivan certainly thought so. According to her, Luxon won a reprieve, not a victory. She is surprised Chris Penk’s navy career hadn’t better prepared him for the darker arts of politics, equipping him with the strategic nous of how to launch an attack with military precision. Fran says the chain of command, if it existed, broke before the target could be annihilated. A shrewd observation.
Fran quotes former ACT MP and lawyer Stephen Franks: “I suspect Chris Penk was encouraged to ‘go over the top’ first by colleagues vowing to be right behind him, only to find himself effectively unaccompanied as he forged into no man’s land”. Fran says it is fatuous to believe Penk’s initiative was a solo kamikaze raid. According to her, Luxon survived the coup hands down. Really?
Are we expected to believe the Herald’s Thomas Coughlan and his mates are the heroes in creating this shambolic mess? This ‘perceptive’ (give me a break) journalist was doing nothing but what his types do today – try and create a ‘snakes and ladders’ moment with Luxon going down the snake. If Fran is correct and Luxon called the meeting based on the musings of leftie journalists, he needs to urgently seek advice on how to handle media ratbags like Coughlan. As for surviving the meeting hands down, I doubt the vote, if it was made public, would reflect that.
Fran then says Luxon’s praetorian guard of cabinet ministers – Mark Mitchell, Louise Upston, Todd McClay and Paul Goldsmith – circled the wagons effectively. She says Mitchell was the key here. Fran points out his time serving in Iraq gave him the knowledge of how to protect a valuable asset. Really? Evidently he alerted Luxon who then called the meeting.
Fran thinks, quite rightly, if Luxon’s strategic objective is to retain the coalition, then campaigning against the electoral system that makes a coalition government possible is an extraordinary distraction. She says it looks like a prime minister blaming the system for his difficulty managing the people elected under it and political discipline is needed. In her view Luxon has 12 weeks to change the narrative: ‘can Luxon survive’?
According to Fran this means a ruthlessly narrow campaign: economic recovery, infrastructure, productivity, investment, energy security, law and order, health and cost of living. She is correct. That is what all parties on the right must focus on, while highlighting the difference between them and the coalition of the great unwashed that sits across the aisle. If we want what is promised during the campaign acted upon then it is in our interests to ensure ACT and NZ First are returned in greater numbers as that will put more pressure on National to deliver on promises made.
Fran also says every day spent discussing coups, MMP, “numpties”, coalition tensions or leadership succession is a day the opposition gets to define the election. Bang on again. The strategic point Luxon should understand is that what happened on August 12 was a reprieve, not a victory. The MPs who didn’t roll him have effectively said, ‘we don’t want to change horses three months before an election’. They have not necessarily said, ‘we have complete confidence that Christopher Luxon is the leader who can win it’. The caucus should have sorted this out the first time around.
This is where we are, with a much greater reliance on ACT and NZ First to get National over the line on November 7. This should not be the case but these are the cards National has dealt the coalition. Trying to turn National from a conservative-based party with a strong rural base into a more urban-looking party was never a good idea. Elections might be won and lost in Auckland, but the rural electorates are equally important when it comes to National devising a winning strategy. They represent a crucial slice of National’s voters.
Meanwhile the children in the media, including the ‘perceptive’ Thomas Coughlan, are playing Snakes and Ladders.
