I take the polls largely with a grain of salt and I know bias when I see, hear or read it. I try to deal in reality and I rely a lot on ‘gut feel’. It is on these sorts of precepts that I have concluded what sort of outcome this election might throw up. It could reveal some unlikely results or scenarios, thereby playing havoc with my predictions, but I’ll have a go.
First, how I came to reach my predictions:
1. I believe enough people on the right understand the split-vote concept, how it works and why it is needed. I don’t think there is as much confusion amongst voters as the commentators are suggesting. It is not new. Many have been doing it consistently ever since MMP started.
2. People are split voting, not only to ensure a right-coalition win, but because they are disappointed in how National has performed and have decided to take their vote elsewhere. This is reflected by the low party vote in the polls. This week’s polls have the party hovering around the 30 per cent mark. National’s message is party vote National or get a Labour-led Government. My message is: based on the polls numbers, party vote National and you WILL get a Labour-led Government. On issues affecting the economy, National definitely gets an overall pass mark. On social and race issues, we have been badly let down by the lily-livered liberals now in charge of the party. This has to change.
3. The right is helped by dreadful campaigns run by the parties on the left, including Opportunity. In order not to make their campaign look even worse, I believe Labour are following the formula of the UK Labour Party and so we don’t know the half of what will be foisted upon us should they win. The Māori Party is off the charts in terms of what they will want. Opportunity has been driving around in a van lacking a warrant of fitness. I suggest the party needs one as well.
4. The Greens’ poll numbers will likely differ to those shown on the night, as they always poll higher than their election night numbers.
5. NZ First, both Winston and Shane, have been packing halls around the country, doing old-style electioneering. On that basis I think the polls have NZ First too low. If I was asked who had run the best campaign I would say it is ACT. David Seymour has run a sensible campaign. He has not over promised in spending: in fact, his policies are designed to save money for the taxpayers. A lot of what he has spoken about is very much in line with voters’ wishes.
6. I think most swing voters, those who actually decide elections, have an appreciation of what the left coalition would look like and the extra debt the country will rack up, as it always does under left-wing governments. The only way a left coalition will survive is by Hipkins giving in to virtually all the demands. The country would, in a very short space of time, be fiscally out of control. The question then would be how long before the coalition blows up.
Here are my predictions:
National – 38 seats
ACT – 13 seats
NZ First – 15 seats
Total number of 66 seats.
Labour – 32 seats
Greens – 16 seats
Maori – 4 seats
Opportunity – 0
Total number of 52 seats.
I feel I am being generous to the Greens and, some would say, NZ First. I think NZF are consistently underrated and the Greens consistently overrated in the polls, as are the media darlings of this election, Opportunity. Ryan Bridge on Newstalk ZB has the same gut feeling I do: that Opportunity won’t make it.
Wednesday night’s Roy Morgan poll had NZF up four seats and ACT up two seats, an increase of six seats that will be needed.
Whichever way the cookie crumbles, it is going to be an interesting night. Split your vote and hopefully save the day.
