Lockdowns are what you call a necessary evil. Forcing people to stay at home, and kids away from school is a huge imposition on people’s rights of travel, association, expression etc.
But they have been necessary as the deaths and hospitalisations from Covid-19 before vaccination would have been worse than the lockdowns.
So I believe the decision to do lockdowns has clearly been right as a short to medium term strategy. But I am concerned that some people believe these should remain with us indefinitely.
Public health “experts” are indeed experts on what measures will reduce illness and deaths from disease etc. But that expertise often blinds them the fact that any policies must be balanced against the costs – both economic and personal.
If you don’t accept that there is a balance, you might believe that the speed limit should be 30 km/h to reduce the road toll and that all dangerous sports should be banned.
Let me quote Professor Michael Baker from last month:
He said the fact we had simply accepted that hundreds of people would die every winter from the flu was shocking. He described it like the Grim Reaper going through and collecting its harvest.
This implies that the tools used for fighting Covid-19 should also be used to fight the flu and that lockdowns should be a regular and routine part of life in the future.
Another scientist, Shaun Hendy recently mooted closing down some supermarkets to fight Covid-19.
I believe we need a path forward out of lockdowns, while still retaining some public health tools. This is what I’d like to see the government lay out for us and the key elements I think it should have:
Vaccinations
We should transition out of lockdowns around three months after every New Zealander eligible to receive a vaccine has had a chance to be fully vaccinated.
Let’s say there is the capacity for everyone to have their first vaccine by the end of December and the second vaccine by end of February. So around May or June 2022, lockdowns should end.
I don’t think the end of lockdowns should be based on the percentage vaccinated. That gives too much power to those who refuse to be vaccinated. It would punish all of New Zealand for those choosing not to be vaccinated. It should be based on everyone having had the opportunity to vaccinate.
It is becoming clear that the vaccine becomes less effective over time. As a priority, we should be ordering and making available booster shots. These would be done at least annually, maybe more often.
I also support vaccine mandates in key sectors such as the border, education and health facilities etc.
Inwards Travel to NZ
New Zealanders should be able to travel in future, if fully vaccinated, without spending two weeks in MIQ. We would still have MIQ for those who are unvaccinated.
There is no way beyond mid-2022 that we should try to remain walled off from the rest of the world.
What one could do is have saliva testing at airports so that any traveller with Covid is detected and then quarantined.
One might also require an MIQ stay for travellers from extremely high-risk areas.
Travel to New Zealand for non-New Zealanders should also be allowed for those who are fully vaccinated.
COVID-19 App
I would be comfortable with the Covid-19 app remaining mandatory for some years to come. So long as the privacy settings are strong, it is a very unobtrusive tool that is essential for contacting tracing.
Masks
Masks are somewhat intrusive but effective. When there is an outbreak in an area, a mask mandate for a limited period of time should remain a viable tool.
Lockdowns
There should be no more general lockdowns once everyone eligible has had the chance to be vaccinated. Individual businesses should be able to be temporarily closed if they have had infections there, but closing down the entire economy should not remain on the table from mid-2022.
Testing
Saliva testing should be a priority as it can be done daily, and you get results back within a couple of hours. In high-density facilities such as universities, you might have regular testing.
Hospitals
It is amazing that after 18 months the Government has not increased ICU capacity. If we accept that we will not remain walled off from the world for decades to come then we will be having more people contracting Covid-19. Only the unvaccinated are likely to require hospitalisation so we shouldn’t need an exponential increase in capacity. But at least a doubling would be warranted.
MIQ
We should have two purpose-built facilities – one in the North Island and one in the South Island. Both should be located away from major population centres.
Feedback is welcome on whether you agree or disagree, and what you want to see from the Government in terms of a roadmap forward.
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