My previous pieces raised a few questions, so I will attempt to answer a few of them here.
Where Does Myanmar Source Its Military Hardware?
Many of these date back to the early 1990s but are well maintained. The fighter aircraft are mostly ground attack and support versions used internally. Major sources are China and Russia, with many being 20 years old.
Why Is the Country Called Myanmar and the People Burmese?
The ruling military junta changed its name from Burma to Myanmar in 1989, a year after thousands were killed in the suppression of a popular uprising. Rangoon also became Yangon. Eventually it became the Union of the Republic of Myanmar. This was an attempt to give an illusion of inclusion for the ethnic minorities who were generally located in outlying states and had Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) operating in them.
Ethnic composition is difficult to breakdown exactly, with there being approximately 135 groups and subgroups.
The major group is the Burmese (Bamar), comprising 68% of the population.
These are followed by: –
Shan 9.0%
Kayin 7.0%
Han Chinese 2.5%
Others 2.5%
Mon 2.0%
Bengali 1.8%
Rakhine 1.7%
Kachin 1.5%
Indians 1.25%
Kayah 0.75%
The USA and the UK still refer to Myanmar as Burma for reasons that are too complex to explain here. The attempt to change the name was not liked by most of the people and many still use both names. They will often refer to Myanmar the country, but call themselves Burmese as that is their ethnicity. However, many of the ethnic minorities would refer to themselves by both their ethnicity and the Burmese nomenclature.
Will It Strengthen China’s Grip on the Region?
Most definitely. It is part of the BRI that is still receiving its full allocation of funding from the Chinese government. It will give them control of a strategic hub in the Indian Ocean and put them within strike range of central and southern India. Is it a coincidence that this happened the day the new Myanmar parliament was due to open or did the election of Biden give them the opportunity to exploit the situation? China also has a major interest (not necessarily CCP sanctioned) in the illegal extraction of teak, gold and gems – rubies etc. The Chinese border forces often turn a blind eye to this and of course are looked after in an appropriate manner. Expect to see a rise in the heroin trade.
What Can the West Do?
Not a lot. They gave China and the generals huge leeway by not supporting Daw Aung San Suu Kyi during the Rohingya crisis. They cut the ground from under her, even though they understood the difficult position that she was in.
It will need a co-ordinated response which has to involve India. (Burma was part of India until 1937). The West can support the dissenters in subtle ways, channelling funds into Myanmar. Due to the educational support and overseas scholarships, an increasing number of mid-ranking civil servants are drawn more towards the West and not China.
Why Should New Zealand Be Bothered?
Because the threat from China is ever increasing and it should learn that appeasement of China will never work. It has been slowly working away in Myanmar for 40 years. It needs a united response from the West and that includes regional players such as India (future trade partner), Japan (likewise), and ASEAN. (Same again).
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