National leads Labour on seven key issues as final Curia poll shows Parliament deadlocked

In brief

• National leads Labour on seven of ten policy areas, including the economy, education, taxes and public safety.
  • Cost of living dominates voter concerns at 33.1%.
    • Views of the country's direction have improved, although pessimists still outnumber optimists.
      • Marama Davidson records the lowest net favourability among six leaders surveyed.
        • The governing parties are projected to win 60 seats, matching a grouping that includes Opportunity, which remains uncommitted.National is rated ahead of Labour on seven of ten policy areas in the final Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll before Saturday's election, despite the survey projecting a 60–60 parliamentary deadlock.The survey places National on 28.9% and Labour on 28.4%, with the Greens on 14.4%, ACT on 10.5%, NZ First on 9.8% and Opportunity on 5.8%.National ahead on seven of ten issuesNational has a 9.8-point advantage on managing the economy, with 38.8% associating it with the issue compared with Labour's 29%.Labour has a substantial advantage on healthcare, at 36.9% against National's 23.8%, and housing affordability, at 32.7% against 23.6%. Labour also leads on reducing poverty.National's advantage on inflation is considerably narrower, at 31.8% against Labour's 30.1%.The findings contrast with the recent Ipsos Issues Monitor, which reported Labour ahead across most policy areas. However, the surveys use different methodologies and question formats, meaning their results are not directly interchangeable.Cost of living dominatesCost of living remains the biggest election issue, nominated by 33.1% of respondents, followed by healthcare at 14.1% and the economy at 12.2%.Confidence improves, but pessimism remainsThe proportion believing the country is heading in the right direction rose 6.5 points to 41.8%, while 45% believe it is heading in the wrong direction. The resulting net negative reading of 3.2 points is the strongest since April 2025.Marama Davidson has the lowest net favourability among the six leaders surveyed, at minus 23%. David Seymour has improved from minus 31% in March to minus 12%.Late shift erases coalition's projected majorityNational, ACT and NZ First have fallen from 65 projected seats to 60, matching the combined total for Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity.NZ First's decline and Opportunity's rise have altered the parliamentary arithmetic, despite National and ACT gaining support. Opportunity has not committed to either bloc.The poll surveyed 1,000 eligible and likely voters between 28 October and 3 November. Its maximum margin of error is 3.1 percentage points.Re-published from the Centrist with permissionOriginal article at The Centrist