So, I was right and the MSM were wrong. Again.
Not that I lay claim to any kind of unique sagacity: I’m merely a moderately informed citizen who pays attention. So, when the media were confidently predicting that the Reserve Bank delivering the first interest rate cut in five years would boost Anthony Albanese’s pre-election fortunes, my response was, Really? Have you paid any attention over the last two years?
Ever since Albanese trashed what little political capital he had, with the disastrous ‘Voice’ referendum, it’s been all downhill for his government. Nothing he or Treasurer Jim Chalmers have thrown at the voting public has made the least difference. Tax cuts, power bill rebates, childcare subsidies, student loan relief: all of it’s been met with not just indifference but active hostility from voters. The idea that a quarter-per cent interest rate cut was going to suddenly turn all that around was obviously ludicrous.
And so it’s turned out.
A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted February 18–23 from a sample of 1,506, gave the coalition a 55–45 lead by headline respondent preferences, a three-point gain for the coalition since January. By 2022 election preference flows, the Coalition led by 52–48, a one-point gain for them.
Primary votes were 39% coalition (up one), 25% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (steady), 9% One Nation (up two), 9% independents (down one) and 4% others (down two). Labor’s primary vote is their lowest in any poll this term.
If it was repeated at the ballot box, it’d be the second-lowest Labor primary vote in Australian history. Only in the first post-Federation elections, in 1901, have they done worse.
On every measure, the Libs are outgunning Labor. Even on what is normally the incumbent’s privilege, preferred prime minister.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval was steady at -22, with 56% giving him a poor rating and just 34% a good one. Peter Dutton’s net approval was down one to +5. Dutton led Albanese by 39–35 as preferred PM (39–34 in January).
By 37–26, voters thought the coalition was the best choice for them and their household over Labor. By 34–18, they thought Dutton better able to deal with Donald Trump than Albanese. By 43–22, they thought Albanese weaker than Dutton.
The Liberals led Labor by 41–24 on economic management (42–23 in January). The Liberals led on keeping the cost of living low by 37–25, down a little from 37–22 in January […]
Asked about the direction of the country, wrong track led by 51–31, a blowout from 46–38 in January. Wrong track led by the same 51–31 margin in December, and it has consistently had sizeable leads since June 2023.
Multiple polls taken after the rate cut are showing the same thing: the coalition’s lead over Labor, in both primary vote and two-party preferred, is widening. Worse, the leading issues for voters are all deadly for Labor.
On issues, 70% rated cost of living a top three issue, followed by 39% for housing, 27% for both crime and economic management, 26% for health and just 17% for the environment. The Coalition held double-digit leads over Labor on cost of living, crime and economic management.
Note that climate change, the great obsession of the left, doesn’t even rate as a leading issue. Almost certainly because, as voters have, thanks to Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen, got to see the hard reality of what ‘Net Zero’ really means to their electricity bills.
Health, a traditional strength for Labor, trails the white-hot issue of cost-of-living. But if voters sense that, with his recent nine billion dollar announcement on bulk billing, Albanese is once again throwing taxpayer’s money at the wall, it will become another millstone. Eighty-nine per cent of voters thought taxes and government services should either be maintained or reduced.
The government can’t claim, either, that voters are simply unaware of the great work they’ve been doing. A clear majority were well aware of the energy rebates and student debt cuts, as well as increased renewable energy targets. They either just don’t care or are openly hostile.
Where does this leave the election? Without a dramatic election campaign turnaround, Labor is headed for defeat. The only question is: how bad.
For the coalition, a minority government is rapidly looking like a worst-case scenario.
Resolve director Jim Reed said the poll showed the coalition was in a strong position to win in its own right or get the support needed to form government in a hung parliament.
I think the swing is on, with both the declining primary vote and preference flows for Labor reflecting where people are at right now,” he told Nine Newspapers.
The swing has been on for two years. The media just refused to see it.
