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Summarised by Centrist
Winston Peters’ New Zealand First has started the 2026 election year with its strongest-ever result in the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, jumping 3.8 points to nearly 12 per cent, its highest level since the poll began in 2021.
Meanwhile, the Greens fall sharply to 7.7 per cent, ACT drops to 7 per cent, and Te Pāti Māori sits on 3 per cent. Labour sits at 34.4 per cent, up 2.8 points since December, while National rises to 31.5 per cent.
If translated into seats, the results would give National, New Zealand First and ACT a narrow parliamentary majority. However, Labour remains the largest single party. Peters’ resurgence could once again place him in a pivotal position after the election, shaping both coalition talks and policy direction.
Leadership rankings show Christopher Luxon slips just shy of 20 per cent in the preferred prime minister measure. Chris Hipkins edges up to 18 per cent. Peters climbs to nearly 10 per cent, while David Seymour also records a lift. Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick dropped more than 2 points to under 6 per cent.
Nearly half of New Zealanders say the country is on the wrong track, while only about a third think it’s heading in the right direction.
Conducted between January 14 and 18, the poll results are the first announced since the election date was confirmed for November 7.
