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The latest Guardian/Essential poll has shown NZ First passing Act for the first time. This poll is likely to cause extreme consternation inside the National Party and blind panic in the Act Party. With the majority of voters still yet to vote this poll will likely accelerate the direction of travel for the centre-right.
| Party | October 2023 | September 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| National | 34.0% | 34.5% |
| Act | 7.9% | 10.3% |
| Labour | 30.3% | 26.9% |
| Green | 10.6% | 11.0% |
| NZ First | 8.2% | 6.0% |
| Te Pati Maori | 1.9% | 2.5% |
| Other | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| Unsure | 3.8% | 5.3% |
Support for Labour has registered a burst of energy in a Guardian Essential poll days before the New Zealand election – but not enough to overcome an advance by the populist group New Zealand First, which is expected to propel a rightwing coalition to power.
The minor party’s steady climb in recent surveys threatens to vex what once appeared an easy route to victory for the right in Saturday’s election, after months of polls showed governing Labour languishing. Led by the maverick, veteran lawmaker Winston Peters, New Zealand First recorded 8.2% in October’s poll – which includes undecided voters in its total – up 2.2 points from September’s survey, and the party’s strongest showing of any major poll this year.
Since September’s poll, support stalled for centre-right National, the main opposition party, which recorded 34% of the vote, 0.5 points down from last month. Its support partner, the minor libertarian group Act, slid 2.4 points to 7.9%.
The centre-left Labour party lifted 3.4 points to 30.3%, an 11th-hour boost after months of persistent slumps in the polls. Support for Labour’s leftwing support parties was steady; the Greens recorded 10.6% of the vote (down 0.4 points from last month) and Te Pati Maori registered 1.9% (down 0.6 points).
Undecided voters made up 3.8% of the tally in the poll of 1,200 eligible voters, which was conducted from 4-8 October – including a period when the Labour prime minister, Chris Hipkins, was isolating with the coronavirus – and had a 2.8% margin of error.
Guardian
Another of my predictions comes true. There is a surge on and it’s for NZ First. Act has real problems now and David Seymour’s negotiation plans are in tatters as NZ First passes them in the polls.
Chris Hipkins should have a relapse of Covid as Labour’s numbers went up while he was in isolation. He really should do a Biden and stop campaigning altogether.
National too must now be thinking about where has it all gone wrong. I can answer that with just one name, Christopher Luxon. The man is not voter-friendly. It is as obvious as the speckles on his bald head.
David Seymour has been undone by his arrogance and his hubris. He will be furiously trying to remember all the smears, slurs and sledges he directed Winston Peters’ way, and try to work out a way to walk those back quick smart. Sadly for him, Winston will have kept the receipts.
Things just got exciting. Winston’s on fire this campaign.
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