One Nation Leading in Battleground State

Another week, another poll, another vindication that One Nation’s rise and rise is more than a mere ‘blip’. You can almost hear the mutual weeping and gnashing of teeth in Liberal party and left-media HQs. Even Labor’s bean counters have got to be getting nervous.

Especially in Queensland.

Labor and the coalition are facing a One Nation bloodbath in the battleground state of Queensland, as young Australians, women and voters in the Sunshine State shift away from Anthony Albanese, raising alarm in ALP ranks about losing seats that were won at last year’s election.

An exclusive Newspoll quarterly analysis prepared for the Australian reveals the extent of Labor’s electoral slide over the past three months, One Nation’s electoral gains across the country, and how the coalition plunged to its worst primary vote in history.

The demographic snapshot from Newspolls conducted between January 12 and March 26, which captured the rise of One Nation, the demise of Sussan Ley, and the dramatic fall in satisfaction with the prime minister’s performance, shows Pauline Han­son’s party is leading the coalition in every major state except Victoria and has the highest primary vote of any party in Queensland.

While it’s undeniable that One Nation’s rise has mostly been at the expense of the Liberal-National coalition, the party is starting to chip away at Labor’s already-minimal support.

In the wake of the Bondi Beach terror attack in December, a ministerial travel expenses scandal, rising inflation, higher interest rates, fuel shortages triggered by Donald Trump’s war in Iran, and the worsening cost-of-living crisis, Mr Albanese and Labor strategists are under pressure to stem the party’s electoral bleeding […]

Labor’s primary vote in the most populous states has crashed over the past three months, falling from 37 per cent to 31 per cent in Mr Albanese’s home state of NSW and from 35 per cent to 32 per cent in Victoria.

What’s got to really be terrifying the Establishment parties is that One Nation is now drawing increasing support from the very demographics that have long been the left’s core supporter base: the young and women. Support for One Nation among voters aged 18 to 34 has doubled in just the last quarter. Nineteen per cent of young voters now back Pauline Hanson’s party. Even more stunning, more women than men are now supporting One Nation. Non-English-speaking Australians have also doubled support to 19 per cent.

Labor’s and PM Anthony Albanese’s support is dropping across every demographic.

But One Nation’s absolute barnstorming in Queensland is a heavy blow to Albanese’s re-election hopes. Labor has long struggled in Queensland, but won 12 out of 30 seats in the Sunshine State at the last election. The new polling suggests those gains will all be lost to One Nation.

When averaged across polls since the beginning of the year, One Nation sits comfortably at 25.5 per cent. Considering this is an average across the mainland states, it may be safe to assume it must be well into the 30s in Queensland. A further leap would conclude that One Nation is now outpolling Labor in the Sunshine State.

The theory on which the Liberal and National parties are pinning their hopes is that this is the peak and the plateau, and One Nation’s primary vote support will begin its gradual decline from here. This is an interpretation based on wishful thinking rather than any evidence.

Labor has, since the election, lost a precious four per cent of its primary vote – which was already sitting at a near-record-low of 33 per cent. To date, Labor has shed its vote to the coalition and the Greens, as well as One Nation. The big game-changer in the next year or so, leading up to the election, is that the Overton Window has been shattered. While the legacy media hit pieces will certainly proliferate as the Establishment flounders and flails in desperation, the simple fact is that people are no longer scared or ashamed to support One Nation. As Restore Britain’s Rupert Lowe so bluntly puts it: “We just don’t give a shit”.

Hanson’s legitimacy is derived from a consistency of message. But the effect of Barnaby Joyce’s defection from the Nationals can’t be underestimated.

This isn’t a popular view but even those on the Labor side acknowledge Joyce has made One Nation more acceptable for many who otherwise may have been unwilling to support Hanson. By how much is impossible to know but with every successful outing Hanson has, the legitimacy angle is only reinforced.

At the only poll that matters, the ballot box, the South Australian state election was a litmus test. Not only did One Nation surge to win an unprecedented four lower house seats in the most progressive state in Australia, in one seat, Light, Labor and One Nation went head-to-head. Labor got belted with a 20 per cent swing against it. In this once safest of Labor seats, the ALP is less than 800 votes ahead of One Nation.

The next big test will be the Victorian election later this year. Labor have ruled the Woke State for all but three of the last 25 years. Even a moderately good showing by One Nation in Victoria will have Labor terrified – and the coalition relegated to minor party status.