There comes a point for any politician and party where a certain public perception becomes set in stone. That point is usually their death knell.
For instance, the lightning-fast pivot in New Zealand public opinion circa 2022, when the Covid boost that incumbents around the world had enjoyed evaporated almost as fast as lockdown weariness set in. From gracing the covers of women’s glossies, Jacinda Ardern went to NZ’s Most Hated and couldn’t make a public appearance without being heckled.
From the moment then-Labor leader Simon Crean triggered a reflexive howl of laughter in parliament with the phrase, ‘a Crean Labor government’, his leadership was doomed. He was a laughing-stock. Once people are certain that you’re a loser, you’ve, well, lost.
Anthony Albanese is facing just such a harsh assessment.
A majority of voters for the first time expect the Coalition to win the next federal election, with Anthony Albanese sliding to the lowest approval levels since becoming Prime Minister amid a fall in support for Labor.
An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the Coalition kicking off the election year with Liberal leader Peter Dutton closing the gap further as preferred prime minister and the Coalition leading 51-49 on a two-party-preferred basis.
The poll reveals a significant shift in voter sentiment against Mr Albanese over the summer break.
The narrative is in: Albo is toast.
Worse for the government, he’s in that dire political situation where nothing he does helps. The only thing he can do is drive his fortunes deeper into the negative. Every policy announcement for more than a year now, no matter how crowd-pleasing, has sunk into a morass of indifference. Every misstep has only sent his poll numbers diving lower.
Meanwhile, opposition leader Peter Dutton is in the enviable position of completely driving the political conversation. From nuclear energy to anti-Semitism, Dutton is not just dominating the narrative: he’s setting it.
The result is a complete turnaround in voter expectations in just six month. In August 2024, 55 per cent polled expected Labor to win a second term. Now, 56 per cent expect the coalition to win.
And Albanese is the most disliked PM in years.
Approval of the Prime Minister’s performance has fallen to a low of just 37 per cent while dissatisfaction has risen to 57 per cent, giving Mr Albanese a net negative approval ratings of minus 20, marking a six-point fall since the last poll […]
Mr Albanese’s personal numbers are now worse than Scott Morrison’s at the same point in the cycle before he went on to lose the 2022 election.
And all those who bragged about voting out Morrison? They’ve gone very, very quiet.
There is a significant gender difference in the expected outcome with 58 per cent of women voters believing a Coalition victory was more likely compared with 49 per cent of men.
Men were more inclined to predict a Labor win, at 51 per cent compared to 42 per cent of women voters. Younger voters said a Coalition victory was now more likely at 53-47 per cent, which was mirrored by the oldest demographic of over 65s.
The question asked who voters thought was most likely to win the election irrespective of whom they wanted to win.
Interesting that the Zoomers are in lockstep with the Boomers and not the Boomers’ children, the Millennials.
Of course, this doesn’t say anything about voting intentions, but on that front, the running is all with Dutton, as well.
So, the big question now is, will Albanese hang on like grim death to the latest possible election date (in May), risking further slides in the polls? Or will he rush to an early election and look as panicked as he almost certainly is?
