Politicians and journalists are good with words but bad with numbers. Put a % behind a poll number, and they make decisions while ignoring the important statistical error margins. Put a $ in front of a number, and they stop thinking altogether.
A Waikato Times article on Three Waters tacked on a $ figure in the final paragraph as though it was an afterthought and with no analysis.
“The Government estimates about $185 billion is needed to fix, maintain and upgrade the country’s water services over the next 30 years.”
Waikato Times
Big numbers may be scary, and $185 billion is a very big number, but when we have calculators on our phones, a quick breakdown is easy. I start with a per capita figure, divided by our team of 5 million. The answer, $37,000, is a simple number. Do you have that much to spare on water reform? If not, you should be worried.
The next test I use is per family. The average family might have 2.5 children and is down to 1.5 parents, but when it comes to taxpayer dollars, I use a typical family of 5 to account for retired grandparents. The bill for the typical family is $185,000. How many families can afford that?
This should have been the lead paragraph of the story.
It is clear that the government’s proposal is completely unrealistic. A total rethink is needed, and it is the journalists’ job to educate the public on the matter.
The same is true of Auckland’s light rail plan at $15 billion. With a population of 1.5 million, that’s an easy calculation of $10,000 per person and $50,000 per family. The city’s transport woes are very real but given those numbers, we have to question whether this is the right solution.
Capacity is 15,000 people at rush hour, which is 1% of the population. $1 million per user, while the rest of the commuters won’t even notice the difference. It would be cheaper to pay people to move out of Auckland.
Money is not the only criterion for decision-making but understanding numbers should be an essential requirement for politicians. Can we please start voting for people with this basic skill?
