Summarised by Centrist
The final Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll predicts a 60–60 hung Parliament, but only by placing Opportunity’s seven projected MPs in an “Opposition Bloc” with Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori.
Opportunity has claimed it could negotiate with either side.
National leads Labour by just half a percentage point, rising 0.4 points to 28.9%. Labour gained 0.2 points to reach 28.4%.
The Greens increased 1.1 points to 14.4%, while ACT rose 1.3 points to 10.5%. New Zealand First fell 2.2 points to 9.8%.
Opportunity gained one point to reach 5.8%, putting it above the threshold and giving it seven projected seats. Te Pāti Māori fell to 1.1% but retained one projected electorate seat.
The poll allocates 35 seats to National, 34 to Labour, 18 to the Greens, 13 to ACT, 12 to NZ First, seven to Opportunity and one to Te Pāti Māori.
Curia groups National, ACT and NZ First together on 60 seats. It then reaches an equal 60-seat opposition bloc by combining Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity.
But Opportunity has not committed itself to supporting Labour. If its seven seats went to the centre-right instead, the same party-vote projection would produce a 67-seat majority against 53 seats for the left, before any overhangs were included.
“Three days until voting closes, and the results literally could not be any closer,” Taxpayers’ Union spokesman James Ross said.
The poll also found Christopher Luxon remained ahead of Chris Hipkins as preferred prime minister, leading 23.8% to 22.6%.
National was rated the strongest party on the economy, inflation, education, taxes, safety, spending and the environment. Labour led on health, poverty and housing.
Net country direction rose 9.3 points to -3.2%, its highest level since April 2025.
Ross acknowledged that the seat projection was based only on the party vote.
“Overhangs, that is National’s and Te Pāti Māori’s respective results in the electorates, could make all the difference,” he said.
The latest Roy Morgan poll also points to Opportunity holding the balance of power, putting the party on 8%, compared with 5.8% in the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll.
Read more at NZ Taxpayers’ Union
Image: Ballofstring
Re-published from the Centrist with permission
