There comes a tipping point in any government’s fortunes when it’s obvious that nothing can save them. For Jacinda Ardern, the worm turned with astonishing rapidity after Labour’s victory in 2020. By 2022, the trend was set in stone and Ardern could barely show her face in public without being heckled.
For Anthony Albanese, the political death mark is being posted long before his first term is even out. Having barely scraped into government with a near-record-low primary vote, Albanese dealt a mortal blow to himself by going all-in on the divisive “Voice” referendum. The humiliating total rejection by Australians demolished what little traction Albanese had.
Everything the PM has thrown at the public to try and revive his government’s fortunes has hit a wall of indifference and slid ignominiously to the ground. Tax cuts, ‘cost of living relief’, big policy announcements: they’ve all sunk into the mire.
Last week, it was announcing a new ‘Aborigines and solar panels’ initiative at the Garma Festival. No one was buying it.
And Labor’s fortunes just keep sinking.
A majority of voters expect a hung parliament at the next federal election, as Labor’s primary vote falls to 32 per cent amid the cost-of-living squeeze and the Coalition increases its primary vote lead to an equal post-election high.
The Coalition’s seven-point lead on first preferences is the widest gap between the two major parties since the fallout of the voice referendum loss, but not enough to put the Liberals and Nationals into an election-winning position […]
This is the third time the two parties have been tied since May 2022 and strengthens the odds of a hung parliament should the result be repeated at a general election.
What’s notable in this poll is that voters are expecting a minority government, one way or the other. Almost one in five doesn’t believe Labor will hang on to its majority.
This is the self-reinforcing narrative in motion.
Whether or not a clearly firmly-held belief that a minority government is inevitable will drive voters away from smaller parties is unclear. But it’s probably more of a concern for the Greens than for minor parties on the right. The prospect of the Greens tail wagging the Labor dog will be a far more effective scare campaign for the Coalition than vice-versa.
The Greens primary vote fell a point to 12 per cent, with other minor parties and independents lifting a point to 11 per cent and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party stable at 6 per cent.
One thing seems certain: short of a Sunak-style fit of self-sabotage, Albanese won’t be rushing to the polls soon, despite recent whispers of an early election.
Support for Labor – at under a third of the electorate – is now below its May 2022 election result and would suggest there is little prospect of Anthony Albanese calling an early election for this year […]
The results will give the government cause for concern, as Labor’s income tax cuts and energy bill relief, and last week’s announcement of a 15 per cent wage rise for childcare workers, appear to have done little to boost its stocks.
No amount of vote buying is working for Albanese.
Neither leader is exactly winning hearts and minds, with both recording negative approval. But personal approval is the incumbent’s to lose: remember, people almost always kick governments out, not in.
