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Today is a FREE taste of an Insight Politics article by Stephen Berry that was first published 23rd October 2020.

The Green Party Surprised Us All

One of the basic disclaimers that accompany any investment advice is “past performance may not be indicative of future results.” I don’t feel any obligation to attach such a disclaimer to my opinion pieces because you’re only investing five minutes of your life into reading it, not your retirement fund. Opinions are like arseholes:

• Everyone has one
• Some of them stink
• Most are full of shit
• Some of them can get f*cked

However, in the first election in a decade in which I’ve been able to publicly and honestly predict the result, past performance as a guide has led to being as accurate as choosing the result of a coin toss.

Polling has been unfairly bagged throughout multiple elections and referendums in recent years. I’ve argued that while individual polls or individual polling company trends are unhelpful, the trend of all polls (i.e. a poll of polls) is actually fairly accurate. Compare the five most recent polls, from October 9-16 (2 Colmar Brunton, 1 Reid Research, 1 UMR, 1 Roy Morgan), with the result on the night.

In The Polls: The Sequel I predicted

“It would be historically unusual for Labour to fail to win a second term. A Prime Minister has not failed to win a second term without dying since 1960. “

The habit of nineteen subsequent elections holds true as Labour wins a second term. However don’t get too cocky about the prospect of National winning 2023. The last time a Government failed to win a third term was in 1990, which will be a gap of 33 years.

“Labour would govern alone on 63 with National on 46 and Act 11 seats. That would be a historical impossibility as no party has ever governed alone under MMP, even in Germany since it was introduced in 1948.

“If the Greens fail to get into Parliament, then I’d put my money on the historically unusual defeat of a one-term government occurring over the possibility of a historic first: Labour governing alone.”

One major party or the other has polled over 50% for much of the last 20 years. Until this election, that had never been replicated at the ballot box. How fortunate that it is illegal to bet on the election outcome in New Zealand because 96 accumulated years of German/New Zealand MMP was not indicative of this result.

“The Greens will get 1.4% less votes than the polls predict on average.”

This election they achieved a 0.4% higher result than predicted. I didn’t see that coming.

Auckland Central

I love to say I told you so and Auckland Central has delivered that small indulgence. Centre-left voters voted strategically to provide the Greens with an insurance policy electorate win. Centre-right voters ignored my advice to vote Labour to prevent Chloe Swarbrick winning. It doesn’t matter because the Greens comfortably cleared the 5% threshold, but had they not, a Greens win would have delivered up to 5 MPs while a Labour win would have made no difference to the make up of Parliament. The Greens’ Chloe Swarbrick achieved a candidate vote 14.8% higher than the Greens’ party vote. Labour’s Helen White achieved a candidate vote 12.7% lower than Labour’s party vote. National’s Emma Mellow achieved a candidate vote 6.7% higher than National’s party vote.

Other candidates of note for all the wrong reasons include Joshua Love, the TOP turned Independent candidate following the release of facebook messages requesting nude photos, received just 43 votes. Leader of Sustainable New Zealand, Vernon Tava received 87 votes and his party got just 43.

The Maori Seats

These seats are notoriously difficult to poll and therefore frequently deliver surprises, Te Tai Tokerau was not one of those surprises, though the race was made more interesting by the candidacy of NZ Public Party/Advance NZ co-Leader Billy Te Kahika. He achieved a dismal fourth place with 4.8%.

Tamaki Makaurau was considered by many to be the Maori Party’s best chance of re-entering Parliament. John Tamihere lost that race to Labour’s Peeni Henare by 902 votes.

Waiariki was the Maori seat that delivered the surprise win for the Maori Party. Rawiri Waititi beat the wannabe ‘Rainbow Minister’ Tamati Coffey by 415 votes to become the party’s sole MP. The only other party that has lost all their seats but returned the following election is New Zealand First in 2008/2011. Waititi is no Winston Peters so it is a remarkable achievement.

Vision New Zealand leader Hannah Tamaki placed third with 838 votes. Perhaps seats that entrench racial identity also harbour a higher proportion of homophobic voters? Perhaps Tamati Coffey’s constituents share my opinion of him as a self-important jerk.

The Referendums

Votes cast for the referendums on passing the End of Life Choice Act and the legalisation of recreational cannabis were not counted on election night and the results will not be published until October 30.

The End of Life Choice Act will pass with ease. My only uncertainty is whether the yes vote will be in the 60s or 70s.

The legalisation of recreational cannabis referendum is much tighter according to various polls but prior to October 17, I expected it to fail. However, I didn’t predict a single-party majority government, the growth in support for the Greens nor the scale of the hammering National received. All of those factors suggest to me the cannabis referendum will also pass.

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