Three polls were released on Tuesday. First out of the blocks was the RNZ-Reid Research poll, followed by the 1News-Verian poll at 6pm. At about the same time, the Roy Morgan poll popped into my inbox. What a different result! The question is how and why. I have researched the methodologies of the three and they are all much the same. There is, however, one significant difference. Roy Morgan is the only one that uses telephones as part of their research and we all know the age demographic most likely to pick up a telephone call these days.
I think this is significant for two reasons – first it ensures the ‘oldies’ have a say and the second is most vote on the right. How significant that is can be open to debate. There will not be a weighting favourable to seniors but they are much more assured of a say than in the other two polls. However, to be fair, one would be hard pressed to point to that being the only reason for such a discrepancy when compared to the other two. It calls into question the accuracy and the believability of any and all of them.
The Reid Research poll has the left combination on 57 seats and the right bloc on 56. The Opportunity Party, if it reached the five per cent threshold would ensure a win for the left. The 1News-Verian Poll had the left and right blocs winning 58 seats each with Opportunity again giving the left the win. The Roy Morgan poll, not involving a left-wing media company, produced a very different result. I would describe the difference as stark. In this poll the National-led Government increased its lead over the opposition bloc from 49 per cent in August to 52 per cent in September. The opposition bloc came in at 41.5 per cent. This lead of 10.5 per cent is the largest since September 2024.
On this result the current government would have 62 seats, with the opposition parties gaining a measly 50 – a whopping 12-seat majority. National have 37 seats (down 12), NZ First would win 12 seats (up four) and ACT would win 13 seats (up two). Roy Morgan asks one simple question: “If a New Zealand election was held today, which party would receive your party vote?” One straightforward question. We don’t know what question or questions are asked in the media companies polls because we are not told. Here’s the other important point. Let’s for a moment take the ‘telephone effect’ out of the Roy Morgan poll. The right would still win handsomely. Why? The split vote.
Here the Roy Morgan poll has produced a combined extra six seats for the minor parties, taking the number for the governing coalition to 62. This is exactly the effect split voting is designed to have on an election. On the left, Labour has 28 seats, the Greens 19 and the Māori Party is predicted to win three electorate seats – a total of only 50. The significant point is that even the eight seats Opportunity would get based on this poll is still not enough to win. Opportunity loses the opportunity to be kingmaker.
This poll proves that Key and Luxon are wrong. If the party votes that got the minor parties the extra six seats had gone to National there would have been no seat increase because they would still have been below the 37, meaning no list MPs. In that scenario the numbers would have fallen as follows – National 37, NZF eight, (minus 4) and ACT 11 (minus 2). That adds up to 56 and not enough to govern. Split the vote and you’re at 62 as the winner. ‘Two ticks blue’ or ‘party vote National’ is guaranteed to lose the coalition the election. Split your vote and the right is home and hosed with a big majority.
The Roy Morgan poll has Labour with only a nine-seat advantage over the Greens. Get Opportunity in with their eight and it’s 28 to 27, a nightmare for Hipkins. And then there’s the Māori Party. The mind boggles merely at the thought of it. Spending would be out the door. Edmonds would lose control over the books. There would be buses and trains for Africa, most near empty, nothing would happen without reference to the Treaty, climate change nonsense would be well in ascendency, an ever-increasing number of public servants hired and we’d soon have an energy crisis to make the doom and gloom feel real.
The ‘split your vote’ for a win is superbly evidenced in this poll. The more voters that do it, the bigger the winning margin.
