Isn’t it funny that when the politicians take an extended Christmas break and aren’t shoving their faces into our lives, their poll ratings go up? The latest Roy Morgan poll confirms a post Christmas and post-Ardern bounce for Labour. The questions will be whether the bounce can be sustained, or whether it is just a dead cat bounce.
Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for January 2023 shows support increased for the governing Labour Party in January, up 2.5% points to 30% – even before former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced her intention to resign on Thursday January 19.
New Prime Minister Chris Hipkins was sworn into the top job a week later and given over 80% of this months Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll was conducted before Hipkins became Prime Minister, there is not enough data yet available to draw any early conclusions on his leadership or whether the change in leadership has made a difference.
Nevertheless, the increase in support for Labour in January has increased support for the party to its highest since August 2022 and closed the gap significantly on the main opposition National.
Support for the governing Labour/ Greens coalition was on 42% in January 2023 (up 3.5% points on December 2022) with support for the Greens also increasing, up 1% point to 12%.
In contrast, the main Opposition National has lost support in January, down 3% points to 32% and support for Act NZ was down by 1% point to 13.5%. Combined support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition is therefore down 4% points to 45.5% – the lowest combined support since October 2022.
Maori Party and New Zealand First set to hold the ‘balance of power’ on current results
The results for January suggest neither Labour/Greens nor National/Act NZ will have enough support to form a majority Government later this year and this is due to increasing support for both the Maori Party and New Zealand First – now at 5% support for the first time since the last election.
Support for New Zealand First has increased by 1% point to 5%, its highest level of support for three years since February 2020. Support for the Maori Party has also increased, up 0.5% points to 4.5%.
A further 3% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament, down 1% point from a month ago including 1.5% (down 1% point) who support The Opportunities Party and 0.5% (down 0.5% point) who support the New Conservative Party.
57 seats for National/ Act NZ and 52 seats for Labour/ Greens leave both short of a majority
If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election the National/Act NZ coalition would likely secure 57 seats in the new Parliament compared to 52 seats for Labour/Greens – not enough for a majority of 61 seats for either side of politics.
The projected results show both New Zealand First, with 6 seats, and the Maori Party, with 5 seats, would have the balance of power in the new Parliament. Either New Zealand First or the Maori Party could provide National and Act NZ with a working majority or if both parties supported Labour and the Greens we would have a re-elected Hipkins-led Government continuing for a third term.
Roy Morgan
Personally, I do not believe that the Maori Party will get anywhere near that level of support, and I can see a resurgent Winston Peters, fighting an election blagging Labour hard and railing against co-governance getting more support.
The election hangs in the balance meantime, and National doesn’t seem to have any grunt or ability to surge again at the moment. I’m not convinced that a strategy of being just like Labour, but more efficient and slightly less crap will work as it did in 2008.
Act is making a play for the freedom votes with Seymour’s constant hypocritical stance on universal rights, but the freedom vote saw him during the pandemic and they don’t like what they see now.
Something is going to have to crack, and soon, for there to be a demonstrable mood for change.
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