Peter Williams
Writer and broadcaster for half a century. Now watching from the sidelines although verbalising thoughts on www.reality check.radio three days a week.
Although we’re bombarded with polls on a regular basis as we close in on November 7th, the unique circumstances of this year’s election mean two things – this will the largest parliament in our history and the side with the biggest overhang will be able to form a government.
This week’s Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll has forecast a hung parliament at 60 seats each, including Opportunity coming in with seven seats. But Te Pāti Māori is only credited with one seat, based on their party vote of 1.1.
TPM will almost certainly win four seats while Labour or the Greens will take the other three Māori electorates.
Although the Taxpayers’ Union has TPM qualifying for just one seat based on their party vote, the 1 News poll had them so low they didn’t even reach the party vote threshold for any seats at all. That means an overhang of at least three seats, and possibly four, therefore a House of Representatives with 123 or 124 seats.
Which means the right has to cobble together at least 63 seats to get a majority.
According to the latest poll, National gets 35 MPs for its 28.9 per cent party vote, ACT qualifies for 13 from its 10.5 per cent and New Zealand First (dropping two points in each of two polls this week even before the Michael Laws’ episode) will have 12 seats. That totals 60, not enough to beat 63 or 64 on the other side.
So National need to score another five seats through an overhang and win at least 40 electorates and to take the size of the House to 128 or 129 seats
A new website launched this week by RCR Media, called votecheck.co.nz, has helpfully looked at all 64 general electorates and concluded the next government could be decided on who wins in eight constituencies described as ‘close’.
First a word about the methodology. The model projects each candidate’s vote from past results, the national polls and any electorate polls and then runs the result through a computer 4000 times. Each electorate is graded Strong, Moderate or Close. The website owners say the site has been compiled in good faith using publicly available information, although it adds that the tool is made for people voting for parties on the right. Each seat lists the top candidates plus those from National, Labour and the perceived right-wing parties.
Of the 64 general electorates, 47 are regarded as strong and nine are moderate. Combining the two grades, National are predicted to win 39 seats (33 Strong and six Moderate) while Labour are Strong in 13 and Moderate in three. ACT are Strong in Epsom, but are expected to lose Tāmaki to National.
The eight Close battles are in Auckland Central, Mt Roskill, Hutt South, Wellington Bays, Wellington North, Wairarapa, West Coast Tasman and Banks Peninsula.
This projector has National in front in three of those contests – Wairarapa, West Coast Tasman and Mt Roskill.
To be honest I don’t see Carlos Cheung, the sitting MP holding on in Mt Roskill where former cabinet minister and Air New Zealand shareholder Michael Wood is making a big move to return to parliament. Votecheck.co.nz has Cheung leading by just 40 to 39 but I’d back Wood down the stretch.
The lead for National’s Mike Butterick in Wairarapa is also just one, 36 to 35, over Labour’s Keiran McAnulty. I think that will eventually go Labour’s way as well.
The news is better in West Coast Tasman where one time Federated Farmers president and local Coaster Katie Milne leads for National over Labour’s Christchurch import Rory Patterson. Her margin is 33 to 29.
National is running second in two other contests. Chris Bishop is trailing Labour’s Ginny Andersen in Hutt South by 40 to 36 so he looks like being, for now anyway, an ex-MP.
On Banks Peninsula, another sitting MP Vanessa Weenink is behind Labour’s Tracey McLellan by 38 to 35.
And in Auckland Central, Chlöe Swarbrick is facing a formidable challenge to hold her seat from National’s Candace Kinser. But according to votecheck.co.nz, Swarbrick leads 35–31 and should scrape home.
For what it’s worth the other close races are in neighbouring Wellington seats. Labour’s Ayesha Verrall leads the Greens’ Tamatha Paul in Wellington North by 31–27, but both will be back as MPs regardless.
In the new Wellington Bays it’s really tight as Julie Anne Genter holds a one point lead over Labour’s economist candidate Craig Renney by 34 to 33.
So National are on course to win 40 electorates. That’s a five-seat overhang on a party vote of just under 29 per cent. If Labour win five of those Close electorates, they’ll get to 23 local representatives and have 11 from the list.
The Greens are likely to lose one of their current electorate MPs in Tamatha Paul but will probably keep the other two, although Wellington Bays is incredibly close and Huhana Lyndon leads in a poll in Te Tai Tokerau.
Labour are favoured to win two other Māori seats in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti and Te Tai Tonga.
So according to votecheck.co.nz and combining it with the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll here’s how the 71 electorate seats could pan out:
Left Wing
Labour 23
Greens 3
Te Pāti Māori 4
Right Wing
National 40
Act 1
Adding in the likely number of list MPs and presuming that Opportunity get to five per cent and join a left-wing coalition, this is how the House of Representatives might look:
Left Wing
Labour 34
Greens 18
Opportunity 7
Te Pāti Māori 4
Total: 63
Right Wing
National 40
Act 13
New Zealand First 12
Total: 65
The right-wing win under this scenario, in a 128-seat parliament, can nominate a speaker and still keep the narrowest of majorities.
And Christopher Luxon still says “two ticks blue”!
For your local electorate race check out votecheck.co.nz.
This article was originally published on the author’s Substack.
