David Seymour’s erratic and abusive behaviour over the past few days has made some of us wonder what is going on. Well, we need guess no more, it’s because his attacks on Winston Peters are working…for Winston. The latest Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll has Act slumping a massive 5%.
National increases 0.9 points on last month to 35.9% while Labour are also up, gaining 1.4 points to take them to 27.9%. ACT have dropped by 5.2 points to 9.1% while the Greens are down 2.1 points to 10.6%.
The smaller parties are NZ First on 6.9% (+3 points), the Maori Party on 3.7% (+0.8 points), TOP on 2.9% (+0.2 points), New Conservatives on 0.7% (-0.1 points), Vision NZ on 0.3% (-0.2 points), and DemocracyNZ on 0.3% (+0.3 points).
Taxpayers’ Union
| Party | Support | Change from last month |
| National | 35.9% | up 0.9 |
| Labour | 27.9% | up 1.4 |
| ACT | 9.1% | DOWN 5.2 |
| Green | 10.6% | down 2.1 |
| NZ First | 6.9% | UP 3.0 |
| Maori | 3.7% | up 0.8 |
| Other | 5.8% | up 1.1 |
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
This is a disastrous poll for the Act Party. There is now no credible poll that shows National and Act getting there alone. They are going to need to pick up the phone and call Winston Peters. No wonder David Seymour looks panic-stricken.
His abuse of Peters is coming back to haunt him. I have said for months that this is what would happen, and now it is coming true. For those commenters who derided me at the time, now is the time to think perhaps Cam is right…again.
Seymour’s numbers have also taken a tumble in the preferred Prime Minister stakes. Winston Peters is now ahead of Seymour too.
Both Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins have risen in this month’s preferred Prime Minister polls. Luxon has risen by 4 points to 29%, while Hipkins has gained 2 points to 27%.
David Seymour has dropped 4 points to 4% while 4.5% of people would still prefer Jacinda Ardern (down 2.5%). Chloë Swarbrick is up 1.4 points to 6.1%, Winston Peters is down 0.2 points to 4.3%, Nicola Willis remains unchanged at 2.5%, James Shaw has dropped 0.9 points to 1.2%, and Matt King has dropped 0.6 points to 0.7%. Marama Davidson has gained 0.9 points to 1.2% while Chris Bishop has dropped 0.2 points to 0.1%
Taxpayers’ Union
And it is much much worse for Seymour in net favourability stakes:
47% (+3 points) of voters have a favourable view of Chris Hipkins while 28% (+2 points) have an unfavourable view for a net favourability of +19% (+3 points).
38% (+1 points) of voters have a favourable view of Christopher Luxon while 40% (-1 points) have an unfavourable view for a net favourability of -2% (+2 points).
David Seymour has a net favourability of -22% (-9 points). James Shaw has a net favourability of -19% (-3 points) while Rawiri Waititi scores -30% (-7 points) and Winston Peters is on -34% (+4 points).
Taxpayers’ Union
Act’s lunacy in attacking Winston Peters has failed. It has only boosted Peters and NZ First. When the post-election analysis is done most pundits will point to Act’s attacks on Peters as contributing the most to their decline.
There are seven days left in the campaign. It’s over as far as a change of Government is concerned; that’s going to happen.
Polls can and do two possible things in voters’ minds: they can generate momentum – those on the rise generally keep rising; and they can also stall momentum – those on the decline get worse as no one backs a loser.
David Seymour has big, big problems.
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