So, all that blood and treasure wasted for what could have been settled three years ago? That’s the upshot of a leak purporting to detail a Trump-brokered peace agreement in Ukraine. If accurate, it amounts to exactly what anyone with half a brain could have foreseen years ago.
Back at the start of 2023, I asked, how does this Ukraine thing end? I predicted that it would end with an Russian annexation of the Russian-speaking Donbas region and an unbroken Russian land corridor to Crimea. Indeed, possibly partition of Ukraine along the Dnieper. Finally, an agreement that Ukraine would stay out of NATO.
Now, I don’t pretend to be any kind of geopolitical genius, but if this leaked peace plan is true, it looks like I mostly nailed it.
The unconfirmed plans, reported by Ukrainian outlet Strana, have been doing the rounds in 'political and diplomatic circles’ in Ukraine, and will include a ceasefire by April 20 that would freeze Russia’s steady advance, and a ban on Ukraine from joining NATO.
According to Newsweek it would include a demand for Kyiv to accept Russian sovereignty on annexed land. Zelensky has denied the existence of such a plan.
On top of this, Ukrainian troops will be made to leave Russia’s Kursk region, where it launched a counteroffensive in August, while a contingent of European soldiers, which could include British troops, would be asked to police a demilitarised zone. American troops will not be involved in this contingent.
Here’s one point to make the feckless EU squeal.
The EU will reportedly be asked to assist Ukraine in its reconstruction efforts, which may cost as much as $486billion (£392billion) over the next decade according to the German Marshall Fund thinktank.
It’s one thing for Europe’s massive arms industries to make a bonanza selling weapons, quite another for them to have to pay to fix the destruction they so willfully encouraged. Hell, Europe sponged off the US to repair its self-inflicted damage after WWII. Expect squealing aplenty from the Euromoochers.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has denied the existence of the ceasefire plans and the White House has yet to officially comment on the reports.
But if confirmed, it would see Zelensky and Vladimir Putin sharing a phone call within days before the warring pair meet either in late February or early March. An official ceasefire declaration would then be made on April 20.
A declaration on the agreed parameters for ending the war would then be released by May 9, after which Kyiv would be asked not to extend martial law or mobilise troops.
The Art of the Deal, Trump style, is making sure that both parties get to walk away with a win.
While many of the terms of the reported plans include concessions for Ukraine, Trump is also reportedly planning on continuing American support for Ukraine's military, as well as a pathway for it to join the EU by 2030.
But Russia would also make significant gains as the plans include lifting sanctions on Russian energy over several years, though money from special duties on energy will be used to help fund Ukraine's rebuilding efforts.
Zelensky is keeping up his standard huffing and puffing, but the brutal reality is that this is a war he’s losing badly, and has done from the start. All he’s done for the last two years is scarf up more US taxpayer’s money and throw more Ukrainian lives into the grinder, for no gain.
Russia currently controls around 20% of Ukraine's territory, and has held widely disregarded referendums in four regions in which they 'voted' to join Russia.
Zelensky previously claimed that he would never allow an acre of land to remain in Putin's hands, but has also admitted that land may not be returned to Ukraine immediately.
Good luck with that, pal.
If this deal is put forward and Putin agrees, but Zelensky holds out, he’ll only blow more of what little international goodwill he still commands. Almost certainly, the river of American gold will dry up.
And the past three years will be seen for exactly what it was: a colossal waste of lives and money, egged on by the Democrats and the Military-Industrial Complex.
