January 30th 2023.
Well, the new year is well underway and there is an undefinable feeling that something is wrong with the UK. There is a feeling of malaise and an overriding sense of general unhappiness sitting like a damp blanket across the psyche of the nation. It is almost as if a spell of classical ennui is gripping the nation.
In simple terms, it is a sense of hopelessness. After a long period of comfort and general prosperity, there is a sense of a nation in decline. To put it brutally, nothing seems to work anymore. Prices are almost out of control, especially food.
Security tags are now beginning to appear on packs of meat, bacon and cheese in selected supermarkets.
Strikes are gripping the nation and it looks as though there is a coordinated effort by the union movement to pressure the government. It is interesting to note that all the strikes are in the public sector which generally gives its employees security of employment. There are no major strikes in the private sector as this would put the employers under pressure with the threat to jobs if the companies are damaged too much. The security of employment in the public sector gives them more freedom of action in relation to strike activities.
In an interesting side-line, a group of teachers couldn’t get to man the picket lines because the trains were on strike. They attempted to hire a coach and were told by the owner that “he was on strike and could therefore not supply them with transport”.
Rishi Sunak is looking more and more detached from the “common man” and is showing his lack of political savvy. He allowed his education minister to appear on TV defending government policy when it became apparent that she was wearing a £10,000 Rolex watch. Not a good optic politically as it just reinforces the public’s opinion of the Conservative party as being sleazy politicians in it for themselves. This brings us to the case of Nadhim Zahawi. The Conservative MP has paid a tax bill of over £5,000,000 including a penalty of about £2,000,000. This was all happening whilst he was the Chancellor of the Exchequer (and in charge of the HMRC revenue and customs!). Ironically he made his money from his sale of You Gov the UKs leading political pollster.
He was reported to the parliamentary standards officer who eventually found him guilty of major breaches of the standards required. As the advisor on standards delicately put it this was “inconsistent with the requirement for openness” on ministers. There were seven breaches of the standards.
Sunak was guilty of acting slowly on this again giving in to his infatuation with process. Of course, things must be done properly with all the correct procedures being followed, but Sunak just didn’t understand the political implications and his image came across as another rich Conservative protecting their own.
This just confirms my thoughts that Sunak is a manager not a leader. He has not communicated a vision of the future under his leadership to the electorate but seems like a Chief Financial Officer of a Footsie 100 company. He doesn’t seem to understand the political implications of his actions. He is also worried that this will bring back the focus on his own wealth and its sources.
Private Eye summed it up perfectly in its front-page headline of today “Tories to bring back integrity, professionalism, accountability and Boris Johnson”.
As the Russo/Ukraine war enters its second year there are early signs of a power shift in Europe. With German and French self-interest becoming obvious there are signs of a new power bloc forming in the EU. The front-line states of particularly Poland, Finland, Sweden, the Baltic states, Romania and ex-soviet controlled countries Czech Republic, Slovakia etc are joining together in an informal group to counter France and Germany’s reluctance to take the lead. This has long-term implications for the structure and political leadership of the EU. Angela Merkel’s policy of Germany first is coming home to roost. There is simmering resentment of Germany for “freeloading” with its lower defence commitments allowing it more freedom with financial policies to the detriment of other EU states.
Oddly enough it has strengthened the UKs position as the member of NATO that took the lead in supporting Ukraine and this has been warmly welcomed by the front-line states. It has led to some of them questioning the role of the EU and its slow support of NATO (Germany has for years been below NATOs target of 2% of GDP spend on defence, with 2021’s figures being 1.53%. The UK is budgeted for 2.1% defence spend rising to 2.5% by the end of the decade. In 2022, in view of the invasion of Ukraine NATO members produced a commitment to meet the defence spend targets. Poland is increasing its defence spend to 3% of GDP.
All this is going to be worth watching as the EU begins to suffer from internal conflict.
