Polls
No Bias in Two Recent Polls
Looking ahead to 2026 election year, my money is on the re-election of the coalition.
Another Dismal Poll for National: Luxon Sinks Further as Election Looms
National cannot keep pretending everything is fine. This poll is a wake-up call, if they have not hit snooze too many times already. With 2026 looming, they better find some spine or prepare for a long stint in opposition.
2:1 Support for Ban on Puberty Blockers
National, ACT, NZ First and Te Pāti Māori supporters had net favourability to the ban, with Labour voters evenly split, and Green voters unsurprisingly opposed.
Latest Poll: Te Pāti Māori in Freefall as Government Clings to Power
Keep in mind that this poll was conducted before allegations started swirling about Willie Jackson and his MUMA issues. If those gain traction, Labour could face even more headaches, further weakening the left’s position.
Latest Roy Morgan Poll: Government Edges Ahead, But It’s All Smoke and Mirrors
In the grand scheme, this poll is largely meaningless. But it does shine a light on one thing: tiny swings in support could tip the balance and unseat the current government.
![[The Good Oil] December 2025 Political Poll](https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1540910419892-4a36d2c3266c?crop=entropy&cs=tinysrgb&fit=max&fm=webp&ixid=M3wxMTc3M3wwfDF8c2VhcmNofDk1fHx2b3Rpbmd8ZW58MHx8fHwxNzIyMzkxNTI4fDA&ixlib=rb-4.0.3&q=80&w=1304)
[The Good Oil] December 2025 Political Poll
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