The latest 1News/Verian poll is out, and it confirms what two other polls last week showed, that the major parties are on a slide, as is normal in most election years. That makes National’s claim of trying to get over 40% in the election look rather like unobtainium.
The latest 1News Verian poll, released tonight, shows the 2023 election remains on a knife-edge, with the National-ACT bloc on 61 seats – just enough to secure power – and the left bloc on 59.
National leader Christopher Luxon also managed to gain ground in the preferred prime minister stakes, rising to 20%, up two points from May. Labour leader Chris Hipkins was on 24%, down one point.
Both major parties – National and Labour – saw a drop in their party vote support, with minor parties picking up the scraps.
National was on 35%, down two points, and Labour on 33%, also down two points.
The ACT party attracted 12% of the party vote in the poll – up one point – the Greens bouncing back three points to 10% and Te Pati Maori and New Zealand First were on 3%.
The Opportunities Party was on 2%, while Democracy NZ, Freedoms NZ and ONE were on 1% each. The remaining 12% didn’t know or refused to answer.
In the House, that translated to 46 seats for National and 15 for ACT, reaching the magic number of 61 to govern.
1News
So, a wafer-thin majority, where one small mistake sees Labour back in with a chance. My hopes are not high of National managing to get through a tough campaign without some sort of mishap.
Labour has launched its new slogan, nicked from the NDP of Canada from their 2019 campaign, and is also eerily echoing David Cunliffe’s “Vote Positive” slogan as well. That rather suggests that Nicky Hager may well be a factor in this election too. The slogan didn’t work for the NDP in that election, losing 15 seats in the process.
But National is not gaining any traction, in fact, the clutch is slipping and they are losing traction, and the last three polls prove that.
Something needs to give; otherwise, the election may well end in disaster. Now is not the time to keep your powder dry. National should be blazing away with gay abandon with everything they’ve got in order to leap ahead.
This poll confirms the general direction of the last two polls. This is not over yet, and the fat lady hasn’t even cleared her throat.
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