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Most of the normal voter behaviours in general elections suggest a centre-right victory, and, though the margins may be tight, a Labour victory depends upon too many abnormal events to occur.
Yet another poll confirms: One Nation are cementing their poll gains.
That is the real issue raised by this agreement: not trade, but whether constitutional change in New Zealand will occur by democratic choice or by political stealth.
National has run out of time. They cannot keep hoping the polls will turn.