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On Wednesday night 1News and Newshub both dropped their final polls for this election campaign. What they show is that it is very safe to say voters aren’t impressed with either major party.
And why should they be? Neither has the intention or solutions to do what needs to be done to get the country out of the crap we find ourselves in.
Labour and the Greens have seen their support grow in the final week of the election campaign leaving New Zealand First potentially in a position to decide who forms the next government, the latest 1News Verian poll shows.
Political leaders have been ramming home the message for weeks — this election will be close. And according to tonight’s poll, the result will be tighter than many had forecast.
Labour is up 2% from last week’s poll to 28%, and National is up 1% on 37%.
The Green Party has hit 14% (up 1%), which would deliver it a record 17 MPs in the next parliament. ACT has slumped to 9% (down 1%), its lowest result in the 1News poll in more than a year. Te Pati Maori is steady on 2%.
New Zealand First’s 6% would place the party and its leader Winston Peters firmly in the kingmaker position between the left and right blocs.
To gain a majority of the House and form a government the magic number is 61.
1News
This confirms the general direction of the Guardian poll. National really isn’t pulling away, and Act is plummeting. Given that Winston Peters has said numerous times that he won’t go with Labour, this poll still shows a change of government.
Newshub was similar.
The election is on a knife-edge once more with the gap between the left and right blocs narrowing and New Zealand First surging in our last Newshub-Reid Research poll of the campaign.
National has been right to panic, with its vote plummeting 4.6 points to 34.5 percent. The party peaked too soon and is looking to snatch chaos from the jaws of victory.
Labour is still losing though. It’s only picked up 1 point to 27.5 percent.
The Greens’ conspicuous absence from much of this campaign is doing their vote wonders. It’s up 0.7 to 14.9 percent.
ACT’s fall from grace has baked in, stalling on 8.8 percent.
And look who’s gobbling up the vote. Winston Peters has timed his run perfectly with New Zealand First up 1.6 points to 6.8 percent.
Te Pati Maori is still not making a break for the 5 percent threshold – it’s up 0.5 to 2.7 percent. The Opportunities Party is on 2.2 percent, up 0.3.
Newshub
While the Media Party likes to pitch this as Winston Peters as kingmaker, the reality is he isn’t going with Labour. He has said it repeatedly, and loudly. So a change of government will occur and it will be made up of my desired outcome, and one which I predicted many, many months ago.
It will be a three-party government made up of National, Act and NZ First.
Ignore the bulldust coming from all and sundry about how a three-party government will be difficult to control. John Key managed to control more than two parties, in fact, it was four parties in 2008 when he formed a National minority government with confidence-and-supply support from the ACT, United Future and Maori parties.
It’s a bit rich now for Labour and National to be caterwauling about not having just two parties. It shows the arrogance and hubris of both of those parties, and Luxon is going to have to pay the price for that by including NZ First in the tent. I can’t wait to see David Seymour’s face when they announce the new government.
But we also need to face some unpalatable facts. Christopher Luxon is a big fat sinker, pulling down a party that should be polling in the 40s. And it is not only Luxon – it is also Nicola Willis and Chris Bishop. Bishop has not run a very good campaign and there are too many questions about Willis’s figures.
I think that because of what they represent as a collective, a few tax cuts ain’t gonna cut it. They have promoted and given oxygen to climate change and woke bs, silenced those in the party who hold differing views, and have policies like congestion charges and RUCs for petrol vehicles that will further drive up the cost of living for those who are already struggling.
This was National’s election to lose, and they’ve cut it very fine indeed. That is a travesty and shows a fair bit of inexperience. Will they learn from this? Not even remotely. They will crow about defeating Labour, do a once-over lightly review of the campaign and resume the progress of the status quo.
Act’s donors really should be kicking the living crap out of David Seymour. He bottled the campaign and has ended up looking morose, angry and churlish as his numbers tanked and he faced the prospect of having to negotiate with a man he has cast shade on for years. It must feel humiliating that Winston Peters has stolen a march on him, and is beating Seymour in the Preferred PM stakes.
Again it was arrogance and hubris that cost him dearly.
Now let’s see if the pollsters got it right or wrong as the numbers roll in on Saturday night.
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